Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a zoonotic pathogen with consumption of pork and derived products identified in different countries as a risk factor for human exposure to HEV. Great efforts have been made to understand the dynamics of virus transmission within domestic swine populations through modelling. However, from a food safety prospective, it is critical to integrate the parameters involved in the transmission dynamics with those governing the actual presence of HEV in the bloodstream, the liver, gallbladder or faeces. To date, several aspects related to the pathogenesis of the disease are still unknown or characterized by significant levels of uncertainty, making this conjunction challenging. We used published serological data obtained from pigs in a farrow-to-finish farm to implement an Immune-Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (MSIR) model reproducing the on-farm dynamics that lead to the occurrence of viraemic pigs at slaughter. Expert opinion on the length of time infectious HEV can be detected in liver, gallbladder/bile and faeces after recovery from viraemic status were used to inform a stochastic model aimed at estimating the expected proportion of viraemic pigs, pigs with infectious HEV in liver, gallbladder/bile and faeces entering the slaughterhouse. To simulate the potential effect of on-farm mitigation strategies, we estimated the changes in outcomes of interest as a function of variations in the baseline transmission parameters. The model predicted a proportion of viraemic pigs entering the slaughterhouse of 13.8% while the proportions of, and ranged from 13.8% to 94.4%, 13.8% to 94.7% and from 25.3% to 30.8% respectively, due to the uncertainty surrounding the experts’ opinions. Variations in MSIR model’s parameters alert of the need to carefully consider the application of mitigation strategies aimed at delaying the decay of maternal immunity or the peak of the within herd transmission. When the rate of decay of maternal immunity and the transmission rate were decreased between 80% and 5% and 40% and 5% from the baseline values respectively, adverse effects on were observed. The model highlights the relevance of specific aspects in the pathogenesis of the disease from a food safety prospective and it was developed to be easily reproducible and updatable as soon as accurate data becomes available. As presented, the model can be directly connected to existing or future pig-related models to estimate the significance of the identified parameters on the risk of human exposure to HEV through consumption of pork products.

戊型肝炎病毒（HEV）是一种人畜共患病原体，食用猪肉和衍生产品在不同国家/地区被认为是人类接触HEV的危险因素。通过建模，人们已经做出了巨大的努力来了解家猪种群内部病毒传播的动态。然而，从食品安全的角度来看，至关重要的是将传播动力学中涉及的参数与控制血液，肝，胆囊或粪便中HEV实际存在的参数进行整合。迄今为止，与该疾病的发病机理有关的几个方面仍是未知的，或者具有明显的不确定性，这使得这种结合具有挑战性。我们使用从分娩到肥育场中的猪获得的已公布的血清学数据来实施免疫易感感染恢复（MSIR）模型，该模型再现了农场动态，从而导致在屠宰场出现病毒猪。从病毒感染状态恢复后，可以在肝脏，胆囊/胆汁和粪便中检测到感染性HEV的时间长短的专家意见被用于建立随机模型，以估算病毒猪，肝，胆囊感染HEV的猪的预期比例/胆汁和粪便进入屠宰场。为了模拟农场缓解策略的潜在影响，我们估计了目标结果随基线传播参数变化而变化的结果。该模型预测有一部分病毒性猪进入13头屠宰场。8％，而由于专家意见的不确定性，其比例分别在13.8％至94.4％，13.8％至94.7％和25.3％至30.8％之间。MSIR模型参数的变化提醒需要仔细考虑缓解策略的应用，这些策略旨在延迟产妇免疫力的下降或畜群传播的高峰。当产妇免疫力的下降率和传播率分别从基线值降低80％至5％，40％至5％时，观察到对母体的不利影响。该模型从食品安全的角度突出了疾病发病机理中某些特定方面的相关性，并且一旦获得准确的数据，该模型便可以轻松再现和更新。如前所述，