Information acquired by individuals over time plays a crucial role in their decision-making process. Gained experience updates beliefs on expected payoffs and is used in a range of decisions each individual is facing. In this paper, we focus on the formation of beliefs about the payoffs associated with spatial choices set in an uncertain environment. We task ourselves with better understanding of day-to-day flexibility of actions as a result of continuous update of prior expectations. We built a model where private and common knowledge on expected economic returns blend and lead to divergence of expectations between individuals. This innovation expands the frontiers of spatio-temporal modeling of micro-behavior to offer a new insight on decay of information relevance with increasing spatial and temporal separation. Application to fishermen harvest location choices demonstrates the use of the model. Successful fisheries management must be able to accurately predict the response of fishermen to regulations with particular attention paid to flexible technologies which allow individuals to adjust effort and alter behavior. Good understanding of fishing locations choice and location adjustment flexibility can contribute substantially to a design of management practices with spatial components.

中文翻译：

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期望的时空更新下的渔民区位选择

个人随时间获取的信息在他们的决策过程中起着至关重要的作用。积累的经验更新了人们对预期收益的信念，并用于每个人面临的一系列决策中。在本文中，我们专注于对与不确定环境中设置的空间选择相关的收益的信念的形成。由于不断更新先前的期望，我们需要更好地了解行动的日常灵活性。我们建立了一个模型，在该模型中，关于预期经济收益的私人知识和常识相互融合，并导致个人之间的期望差异。这项创新扩展了微行为的时空建模领域，为随着空间和时间间隔的增加，信息相关性的衰减提供了新的见解。在渔民收获地点选择中的应用证明了该模型的使用。成功的渔业管理必须能够准确地预测渔民对法规的反应，尤其要注意灵活的技术，这些技术可使个人调整努力并改变行为。对捕鱼地点选择和地点调整灵活性的充分了解可以极大地有助于设计具有空间成分的管理措施。