Understanding spatial population structure and biocomplexity is critical for determining a species’ resilience to environmental and anthropogenic perturbations. However, integrated population models (IPMs) used to develop management advice for harvested populations have been slow to incorporate spatial dynamics. Therefore, limited research has been devoted to understanding the reliability of movement parameter estimation in spatial population models, especially for spatially dynamic marine fish populations. We implemented a spatial simulation–estimation framework that emulated a generic marine fish metapopulation to explore the impact of ontogenetic movement and climate‐induced distributional shifts between two populations. The robustness of spatially stratified IPMs was explored across a range of movement parametrizations, including ignoring connectivity or estimating movement with various levels of complexity. Ignoring connectivity was detrimental to accurate estimation of population‐specific biomass, while implementing spatial IPMs with intermediate levels of complexity (e.g. estimating movement in two‐year and two‐age blocks) performed best when no a priori information about underlying movement was available. One‐way distributional shifts mimicking climate‐induced poleward migrations presented the greatest estimation difficulties, but the incorporation of auxiliary information on connectivity (e.g. tag‐recapture data) reduced bias. The continued development of spatially stratified modelling approaches should allow harvested resources to be better utilized without increased risk. Additionally, expanded collection and incorporation of unique spatially explicit data will enhance the robustness of IPMs in the future.

中文翻译：

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你觉得你正在去往哪里？在空间分层的综合人口评估模型中考虑个体发生和气候引起的运动

了解空间种群结构和生物复杂性对于确定物种对环境和人为干扰的适应能力至关重要。但是，用于为收获种群制定管理建议的综合种群模型（IPM）在纳入空间动态方面进展缓慢。因此，有限的研究致力于了解空间种群模型中运动参数估计的可靠性，特别是对于空间动态海洋鱼类种群。我们实施了一个空间模拟估算框架，该框架模拟了一般的海水鱼类种群，以探讨个体发育运动和气候导致的两个种群之间的分布变化的影响。在各种运动参数设置中探索了空间分层IPM的鲁棒性，包括忽略连接性或估算各种复杂程度的运动。忽略连通性不利于准确估计特定种群的生物量，而在没有有关基础运动的先验信息的情况下，实施具有中等复杂性水平的空间IPM（例如，估计两年和两个年龄段的运动）的效果最佳。模仿气候引起的极地迁移的单向分布变化最大的估计困难，但结合连通性的辅助信息（例如标签捕获数据）减少了偏差。空间分层建模方法的不断发展应使收获的资源得到更好的利用，而不会增加风险。另外，