Preparedness of emergency evacuation for the leakage of toxic substances in chemical plants is very important in order to reduce damage. In order to implement an emergency evacuation properly, it is necessary to comprehensively and concretely determine the conditions of the leakage and atmospheric conditions and predict the consequences of the dispersed gases. Repeated training for emergencies is also essential. In order to realize effective evacuation, a prediction model of the evacuation area that anyone can use to obtain the same results both accurately and promptly is developed in the present study. The prediction model is designed such that the wind speed and atmospheric conditions are automatically set, and the leakage rate is the only input parameter, so that anyone can use the model easily. In addition, the model can also predict the atmospheric parameters for up to 3 h and can calculate the evacuation distance so that smooth evacuation can be achieved for changing atmospheric conditions. Finally, the evacuation area is defined by statistically analysed wind fluctuations, and a series of emergency evacuation measures is implemented.

为了减少损害，紧急疏散对化工厂中有毒物质泄漏的准备非常重要。为了适当地进行紧急疏散，有必要全面，具体地确定泄漏条件和大气条件，并预测气体扩散的后果。反复培训紧急情况也很重要。为了实现有效的疏散，在本研究中开发了任何人都可以用来准确而迅速地获得相同结果的疏散区域的预测模型。设计预测模型时，将自动设置风速和大气条件，并且泄漏率是唯一的输入参数，因此任何人都可以轻松使用该模型。此外，该模型还可以预测最多3小时的大气参数，并可以计算疏散距离，从而可以在变化的大气条件下实现平稳的疏散。最后，通过对风的波动进行统计分析来定义疏散区域，并采取了一系列紧急疏散措施。