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Mathematical modeling, analysis and numerical simulation of the COVID-19 transmission with mitigation of control strategies used in Cameroon
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-18 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110281
Seraphin Djaoue , Gabriel Guilsou Kolaye , Hamadjam Abboubakar , Ado Adamou Abba Ari , Irepran Damakoa

In this paper, we formulated a general model of COVID-19 model transmission using biological features of the disease and control strategies based on the isolation of exposed people, confinement (lock-downs) of the human population, testing people living risks area, wearing of masks and respect of hygienic rules. We provide a theoretical study of the model. We derive the basic reproduction number R0 which determines the extinction and the persistence of the infection. It is shown that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation at R0=1. The sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to determine the impact of related parameters on outbreak severity. It is observed that the asymptomatic infectious group of individuals may play a major role in the spreading of transmission. Moreover, various mitigation strategies are investigated using the proposed model. A numerical evaluation of control strategies has been performed. We found that isolation has a real impact on COVID-19 transmission. When efforts are made through the tracing to isolate 80% of exposed people the disease disappears about 100 days. Although partial confinement does not eradicate the disease it is observed that, during partial confinement, when at least 10% of the partially confined population is totally confined, COVID-19 spread stops after 150 days. The strategy of massif testing has also a real impact on the disease. In that model, we found that when more than 95% of moderate and symptomatic infected people are identified and isolated, the disease is also really controlled after 90 days. The wearing of masks and respecting hygiene rules are fundamental conditions to control the COVID-19.



中文翻译:

缓解喀麦隆使用的控制策略的COVID-19变速器的数学建模,分析和数值模拟

在本文中,我们基于疾病的生物学特征和控制策略,在隔离暴露人群,限制人群(锁定),测试人们的生活风险区域,佩戴方式等方面,利用疾病的生物学特征和控制策略制定了COVID-19模型传播的通用模型口罩和遵守卫生规则。我们提供了该模型的理论研究。我们得出基本的繁殖数[R0这决定了感染的灭绝和持续性。结果表明,该模型在[R0=1个。已经对模型进行了敏感性分析,以确定相关参数对暴发严重程度的影响。可以观察到,无症状的个体传染群可能在传播传播中起主要作用。此外,使用提出的模型研究了各种缓解策略。对控制策略进行了数值评估。我们发现隔离对COVID-19传输具有真正的影响。当通过追踪进行努力以隔离80%的暴露人群时,该疾病大约100天消失了。尽管部分禁闭并不能根除该疾病,但据观察,在部分禁闭期间,当至少10%的部分禁闭人群完全被封闭时,COVID-19150天后传播停止。断层扫描测试的策略也对该疾病产生了实际影响。在该模型中,我们发现,当识别并分离出超过95%的中度和有症状感染者时,该病在90天后也得到了真正控制。戴口罩和遵守卫生规定是控制COVID-19的基本条件。

更新日期:2020-09-20
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