Changes in postharvest storage conditions due to climate change can directly affect energy usage and food supply and quality. However, no study has assessed climate change impacts on postharvest storage conditions in different climate regions over the contiguous United States (CONUS), a major agricultural producer around the world. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on cold storage conditions for the highest grossing crop for each of the nine climate regions within the CONUS. Storage degree days (SDDs) accumulate when ambient temperatures increase relative to crop storage base temperatures. Changes in SDDs and winter subperiod length were calculated for each regional crop using historical climate data and 20 downscaled global climate model projections. All regions project significant increases in SDD accumulation and decreases in winter subperiod length when compared with the historical reference period (1979–2005). Between years 2020 and 2080, Northwest and Northeast regions’ apples will be impacted most by SDD accumulation with yearly increases between 261 and 1004 SDDs. Between years 2020 and 2080, Midwest regions’ potatoes are projected to lose the most days of winter (24–39 days), and Southeast regions’ peanuts will experience the greatest decrease in winter length (17–23%). Increases in SDD accumulation and decreases in winter length will have direct implications on future food supply and storage costs. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the storage conditions for agricultural commodities over heterogenous climate conditions at national scale, providing useful information for long-term agricultural storage planning.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对美国本土主要农产品储存条件的影响

气候变化导致的收获后储存条件的变化会直接影响能源使用以及食品供应和质量。然而，没有研究评估气候变化对全球主要农业生产国美国本土 (CONUS) 不同气候区域的收获后储存条件的影响。本研究的目标是评估气候变化对美国本土九个气候区中每个气候区最高收入作物的冷藏条件的影响。当环境温度相对于作物储存基础温度升高时，储存度天数 (SDD) 会累积。使用历史气候数据和 20 个缩小规模的全球气候模型预测，计算了每种区域作物的 SDD 和冬季亚周期长度的变化。与历史参考期（1979-2005 年）相比，所有地区都预计 SDD 积累显着增加，冬季亚期长度减少。2020-2080年间，西北和东北地区的苹果受SDD积累影响最大，每年增加261-1004个SDD。在 2020 年至 2080 年之间，预计中西部地区的马铃薯将失去冬季最多的天数（24-39 天），而东南地区的花生将经历冬季长度的最大减少（17-23%）。SDD 积累的增加和冬季长度的减少将对未来的粮食供应和储存成本产生直接影响。本研究首次全面分析了气候变化对全国范围内异质气候条件下农产品储存条件的影响，