ABSTRACT: Precipitation and temperature over the Lake Maggiore watershed greatly influence its water balance. Local communities from both Italy and Switzerland rely on the watershed for agriculture, tourism and hydropower production. Accurate climate projections in this area are vital in dealing with their impacts and yet are still lacking. Future climate was assessed by applying the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and using CanESM2 predictors. Three scenarios defined by RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were adopted. Based on our results, SDSM is to a certain degree applicable for simulating precipitation and temperature in an Alpine area. Results indicate that warming from now until the end of the century will be about 2 to 3 times greater without global mitigation. Temperature is estimated to increase throughout the 21^st century, with a stronger warming trend in the northeastern part of the region than in the southwestern part. The strength of the warming at the end of the century highly depends on the scenario considered, with an increase up to 1.7°C for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 compared to 4.2°C for the unmitigated scenario RCP8.5. Seasonal precipitation is expected to change depending on the future scenarios. Most of the region is expected to display a seasonally positive precipitation change during the cold season and vice versa, resulting in a shift in the peak rainy season from autumn to winter. These findings suggest that the area might be vulnerable to global change and will provide useful insight to develop a better strategy for the management of water resources and to study the adoptive measures to manage flood disasters.

中文翻译：

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利用统计降尺度模型对马焦雷湖流域的气候预测

摘要：马焦雷湖流域的降水和温度极大地影响了其水平衡。来自意大利和瑞士的当地社区依靠该分水岭进行农业，旅游业和水力发电。在这一领域，准确的气候预测对于应对其影响至关重要，但仍然缺乏。通过应用统计缩减模型（SDSM）并使用CanESM2预测因子对未来气候进行了评估。采用了RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5定义的三种方案。根据我们的结果，SDSM在一定程度上适用于模拟高山地区的降水和温度。结果表明，从现在起到本世纪末，如果不采取全球缓解措施，变暖将增加2至3倍。估计21^日温度会升高世纪，该地区东北部的变暖趋势要强于西南部。到本世纪末，变暖的强度很大程度上取决于所考虑的情景，缓解情景RCP2.6的升温幅度最高为1.7°C，而未缓解情景RCP8.5的升温幅度为4.2°C。预计季节性降水量将根据未来情况而变化。预计该地区大部分地区在寒冷季节会出现季节性的正降水变化，反之亦然，从而导致雨季高峰期从秋季转移到冬季。这些发现表明，该地区可能易受全球变化的影响，并将为开发更好的水资源管理策略和研究采取管理洪水灾害的措施提供有用的见识。