A bioeconomic model was used to assess the impact of acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease on the economic performance of Litopenaeus (Penaeus) vannamei production. Seven disease severity scenarios were considered where the worst results were obtained when severity was extreme with a mean loss of US$ -727.56 ha⁻¹, a benefit/cost ratio of 0.52, and a 95.9 % loss probability. The best results were projected for the less severe scenario yielding mean net revenues of US$ 672.48 ha⁻¹, a benefit/cost ratio of 1.25, and a 28.1 % loss probability. Under the worst situation, a farm integrated by at least ten ponds was estimated to face 100 % certainty of loss on average. In the most favorable situation, a farm using at least 20 ponds was 100 % confident of no loss on average. For situations when severity was intermediate, increasing the farm size from one to 60 ponds could reduce loss probability from 51 % to 32 %, and from 44 % to 4 %. A sensitivity analysis confirmed that disease mortality was the most critical factor affecting economic risk, and high salinity and poor pond productivity negatively affected shrimp production and economic outcomes. To conclude, the disease has a profound and harmful effect on economic performance where the results could range from catastrophic to moderately acceptable. Furthermore, bioeconomic modeling is useful for risk assessment and analysis of complex situations.

生物经济模型来评估急性肝胰腺坏死疾病对经济绩效的影响凡纳滨（南）南美白对虾生产。考虑了七个疾病严重性场景，当严重性为极端时平均结果损失为-727.56 ha ^-1，效益/成本比为0.52，损失概率为95.9％，最差结果。预计在不太严重的情况下可获得最佳结果，平均收益为672.48美元ha ^-1，收益/成本比为1.25，损失概率为28.1％。在最坏的情况下，估计至少有10个池塘组成的农场平均面临100％的确定损失率。在最有利的情况下，使用至少20个池塘的农场对100％的平均损失没有信心。对于严重程度中等的情况，将养殖场的规模从1个增加到60个池塘可以将损失概率从51％降低到32％，从44％降低到4％。敏感性分析证实，疾病死亡率是影响经济风险的最关键因素，高盐度和池塘生产力差对虾的产量和经济成果造成负面影响。总而言之，该疾病对经济绩效产生深远而有害的影响，其结果可能从灾难性到中等可接受范围不等。此外，