The planning and operation of urban buses depend heavily on the time-varying origin-destination (OD) matrix for bus passengers. In most cities, however, only boarding information is recorded, while the alighting information is not available. This paper proposes a novel method to predict the destination of a single bus passenger based on bus smartcard data, metro smartcard data, and global positioning system (GPS) bus data. First, the attractiveness of each bus stop in a bus line was evaluated, considering the attractiveness of nearby metro stations. Then, the exploration and preferential return (EPR) model was employed to estimate the probability of a bus stop to be the alighting stop, i.e., the destination, of a passenger. The estimation result was obtained through a simulation based on the Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. The effectiveness of our method was proved through a case study on the bus network in Shenzhen, China.

中文翻译：

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基于数据融合的公交车乘客目的地估计

城市公交车的规划和运营在很大程度上取决于公交车乘客的时变始发地（OD）矩阵。但是，在大多数城市中，仅记录登机信息，而没有下车信息。本文提出了一种基于公交智能卡数据，地铁智能卡数据和全球定位系统（GPS）公交数据来预测单个公交乘客目的地的新颖方法。首先，考虑附近地铁站的吸引力，评估公交线路中每个巴士站的吸引力。然后，采用探索与优先回程（EPR）模型来估计公交车站成为乘客的下车车站（即目的地）的可能性。通过基于蒙特卡洛（MC）算法的仿真获得估计结果。