To prevent the spread of COVID-19, many cities, states, and countries have `locked down', restricting economic activities in non-essential sectors. Such lockdowns have substantially shrunk production in most countries. This study examines how the economic effects of lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains, a network of firms for production, simulating an agent-based model of production on supply-chain data for 1.6 million firms in Japan. We further investigate how the complex network structure affects the interactions of lockdowns, emphasising the role of upstreamness and loops by decomposing supply-chain flows into potential and circular flow components. We find that a region's upstreamness, intensity of loops, and supplier substitutability in supply chains with other regions largely determine the economic effect of the lockdown in the region. In particular, when a region lifts its lockdown, its economic recovery substantially varies depending on whether it lifts lockdown alone or together with another region closely linked through supply chains. These results propose the need for inter-region policy coordination to reduce the economic loss from lockdowns.

中文翻译：

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供应链网络对不同地区反 COVID-19 封锁之间相互作用的影响

为了防止 COVID-19 的传播，许多城市、州和国家已经“封锁”，限制非必要部门的经济活动。在大多数国家，这种封锁已经大大减少了产量。本研究研究了不同地区封锁的经济影响如何通过供应链（一个生产企业网络）相互作用，并根据日本 160 万家企业的供应链数据模拟基于代理的生产模型。我们进一步研究了复杂的网络结构如何影响锁定的相互作用，通过将供应链流分解为潜在和循环流组件来强调上游和循环的作用。我们发现一个地区的上游性、环的强度、与其他地区的供应链中的供应商替代性在很大程度上决定了该地区封锁的经济影响。尤其是，当一个地区解除封锁时，其经济复苏程度会因它是单独解除封锁还是与通过供应链紧密相连的另一个地区一起解除封锁而存在很大差异。这些结果表明需要进行区域间政策协调，以减少封锁造成的经济损失。