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Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City.
Nature Communications ( IF 16.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-16 , DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5
Stephen M Kissler 1 , Nishant Kishore 2 , Malavika Prabhu 3 , Dena Goffman 4 , Yaakov Beilin 5, 6 , Ruth Landau 7 , Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman 4 , Brian T Bateman 8 , Jon Snyder 3 , Armin S Razavi 3 , Daniel Katz 5, 6 , Jonathan Gal 5 , Angela Bianco 6 , Joanne Stone 6 , Daniel Larremore 9, 10 , Caroline O Buckee 2 , Yonatan H Grad 1
Affiliation  

SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.



中文翻译:

通勤流动性的减少与纽约市 SARS-CoV-2 流行的地理差异相关。

纽约市社区之间与 SARS-CoV-2 相关的死亡率和住院率差异很大。缓解工作需要了解这些差异在多大程度上反映了流行程度的差异并了解相关的驱动因素。在这里,我们报告了使用对 2020 年 3 月 22 日至 5 月 3 日期间住院分娩的 1,746 名孕妇进行的测试推断出的纽约市 SARS-CoV-2 流行率。我们还评估了流行率与通勤式运动之间的关系并且在每个行政区之外。患病率从曼哈顿的 11.3%(95% 可信区间 [8.9%,13.9%])到南皇后区的 26.0%(15.3%,38.9%),估计全市患病率为 15.6%(13.9%,17.4%) )。区的患病率最低,早晨出入区和晚上进区的减少最大(Pearson R = -0.88 [-0.52, -0.99])。需要进行广泛的测试以进一步明确流行率的差异并评估未来爆发的风险。

更新日期:2020-09-16
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