Energy system optimization models (ESOM) simulate energy and emissions changes under different economic and technological scenarios or prospective policy cases. ESOMs and larger integrated assessment models (IAMs) are increasingly being used to project future physical resource demands, but the integration of (non-energy) physical resource flows or life cycle data into IAMs is far from complete. In this work we demonstrate a method to harness results from the National Energy Modeling System developed by Energy Information Administration (EIA), combined with imputed commodity prices from the UN COMTRADE database, in order to present detailed projections of the physical economy of the United States to 2050. Mass flow results for nine separate scenarios are presented, covering all extraction sectors and manufacturing sectors, with additional disaggregation possible to 4,601 commodities. Results are compared with previous estimates of physical resource flows through the US economy that utilized historical statistics or alternative modeling methods. Overall, the physical resource intensity of the US economy is projected to decrease by an average of 28% per unit of GDP by 2050, suggesting continued decoupling of physical resource use from economic output, but increase by an average of 25% on a per capita basis. These projections have implications for physical resource planning, particularly for materials that have constrained domestic supplies. We also investigate and discuss sources of potential bias and uncertainty in the imputed price estimates and suggest several opportunities to harness the physical resource flow projections for future resource modeling and industrial ecology research. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

中文翻译：

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将物质流附加到国家能源模型系统 (NEMS) 以预测美国的实体经济

能源系统优化模型 (ESOM) 模拟不同经济和技术情景或前瞻性政策案例下的能源和排放变化。ESOM 和更大的综合评估模型 (IAM) 越来越多地用于预测未来的物理资源需求，但将（非能源）物理资源流或生命周期数据集成到 IAM 中还远未完成。在这项工作中，我们展示了一种利用能源信息署 (EIA) 开发的国家能源模型系统的结果的方法，并结合来自联合国 COMTRADE 数据库的估算商品价格，以提供对美国实体经济的详细预测到 2050 年。呈现了九种不同情景的质量流量结果，涵盖所有提取部门和制造部门，可以对 4,601 种商品进行额外分类。将结果与之前使用历史统计数据或替代建模方法对美国经济的实物资源流动的估计进行比较。总体而言，预计到 2050 年，美国经济的物质资源强度将平均每单位 GDP 下降 28%，这表明物质资源使用与经济产出继续脱钩，但人均物质资源强度平均增加 25%基础。这些预测对物质资源规划有影响，特别是对国内供应受限的材料。我们还调查和讨论了估算价格估算中潜在偏差和不确定性的来源，并提出了利用物理资源流量预测进行未来资源建模和工业生态研究的几个机会。这篇文章符合金金要求JIE数据开放徽章在 http://jie.click/badges 中描述。