Abstract In order to avoid environmental catastrophe we need to move to a post-growth economy that can deliver rapid reductions in environmental impacts and improve well-being, independent of GDP growth. Such a move will entail considerable structural change in the economy, implying different goals and strategies for different economic sectors. So far there are no systematic approaches for identifying the desired shape of structural change and sectoral goals in terms of output, demand and employment. We present a novel analysis that addresses this gap by classifying economic sectors into groups with similar structural change goals. Our framework for the classification considers sectoral characteristics along three dimensions, which are (a) the final energy intensity, (b) the potential and desirability for labour productivity growth and (c) the relationship between labour productivity and the energy-labour ratio. We present empirical evidence on the three framework dimensions for economic sectors in the UK and Germany and derive structural change goals for the four sector groups representing particular combinations of the sector characteristics. Our analysis allows us to discuss the specific role of different economic sectors in the structural change envisioned in the post-growth transition and the most important challenges they might be facing.

中文翻译：

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后增长经济需要哪些结构性变革：分析框架和经验证据

摘要 为了避免环境灾难，我们需要转向后增长经济，这种经济可以迅速减少环境影响并改善福祉，而与 GDP 增长无关。这一举措将导致经济结构发生重大变化，意味着不同经济部门的目标和战略不同。迄今为止，还没有系统的方法来确定结构变化的理想形态以及产出、需求和就业方面的部门目标。我们提出了一种新颖的分析，通过将经济部门分为具有相似结构变化目标的组来解决这一差距。我们的分类框架考虑了三个维度的部门特征，它们是 (a) 最终能源强度，(b) 劳动生产率增长的潜力和可取性以及 (c) 劳动生产率与能源-劳动力比率之间的关系。我们提供了关于英国和德国经济部门的三个框架维度的实证证据，并为代表部门特征的特定组合的四个部门组推导出结构变革目标。我们的分析使我们能够讨论不同经济部门在后增长转型中设想的结构变化中的具体作用以及它们可能面临的最重要挑战。我们提供了关于英国和德国经济部门的三个框架维度的实证证据，并为代表部门特征的特定组合的四个部门组推导出结构变革目标。我们的分析使我们能够讨论不同经济部门在后增长转型中设想的结构变化中的具体作用以及它们可能面临的最重要挑战。我们提供了关于英国和德国经济部门的三个框架维度的实证证据，并为代表部门特征的特定组合的四个部门组推导出结构变革目标。我们的分析使我们能够讨论不同经济部门在后增长转型中设想的结构变化中的具体作用以及它们可能面临的最重要挑战。