Abstract A common strategy used to conserve turtles is to increase the number of hatchlings entering the population by protecting the nests. Typically, nest protection programs require regular and systematic abundance surveys conducted over lengthy periods between oviposition and sexual maturity (20+ years) to assess if this conservation strategy is effective in recovering the population. Here, we describe a methodology that dramatically reduced the monitoring period (3 years) required to assess the impact of nest protection upon a threatened freshwater turtle (Elusor macrurus). An age-at-length curve was developed to define the size of turtles produced within the nest protection program period (15 years) and mark-recapture models were used to compare population demographics between areas with and without a nest protection program. Unexpectedly, the study revealed substantially fewer turtles younger than 15-years of age in areas with nest protection compared to areas where no nest protection program existed. The reason for the lack of recovery was due to a significantly lower number of nesting females and a much lower rate of survival from hatching through to the sub-adult stage within the area of the nest protection. Consequently, for E. macrurus, the nest protection program did not result in localised population recovery and in-stream mortality may be an equal if not greater threat to E. macrurus in this part of their geographical range. The study presents a relatively rapid methodology to assess the effectiveness of turtle nest protection programs and diagnose the reason for ongoing population declines.

中文翻译：

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保护龟巢作为扭转种群下降的保护策略的功效

摘要 保护海龟的常用策略是通过保护巢穴来增加进入种群的幼龟数量。通常，巢穴保护计划需要在产卵和性成熟之间的长时间（20 年以上）内进行定期和系统的丰度调查，以评估这种保护策略是否能有效地恢复种群。在这里，我们描述了一种方法，该方法大大缩短了评估巢穴保护对受威胁的淡水龟（Elusor macrurus）的影响所需的监测期（3 年）。开发了一条年龄-身长曲线来定义在巢穴保护计划期间（15 年）内生产的海龟的大小，并使用标记-重新捕获模型来比较有和没有巢穴保护计划的地区之间的人口统计数据。不料，研究表明，与没有巢穴保护计划的地区相比，有巢穴保护的地区15岁以下的海龟要少得多。无法恢复的原因是筑巢雌性的数量明显减少，并且在巢穴保护区域内从孵化到亚成体阶段的存活率要低得多。因此，对于 E. macrurus，巢保护计划并没有导致局部种群恢复，并且在其地理范围的这一部分，流中死亡率对 E. macrurus 的威胁可能是相等的，如果不是更大的话。该研究提出了一种相对快速的方法来评估海龟巢保护​​计划的有效性并诊断持续人口下降的原因。