Abstract Rapidly changing hydrological conditions under climate change, upstream developments, and local water infrastructures require transformative changes in water management strategies for the agriculture sector in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). For more than three decades, the agricultural policies in Vietnam have emphasized the intensification of rice production. In recent years, however, the Vietnamese government has started to pay more attention to longer-term sustainability considerations. Recent regional plans and high-level policies, including the Mekong Delta Plan and the Resolution 120 emphasize the development of high-value, sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture and food production. This shift has its challenges. One of them relates to changes in the government-mandated flood-control strategy. The increased awareness of the agricultural and environmental benefits of seasonal floods including soil fertility maintenance and pest management has resulted in new government regulations that require farmers to adopt a so-called 3–3–2 cropping cycle which means that every three years, farmers protected by high dikes should allow their rice fields to get flooded during the third rice season. Some of the farmers, however, have been reluctant to shift their farming cycle away from the triple-rice cropping system because of livelihood security-related concerns. Our study examines rice farmers’ livelihood sustainability in the upper delta by applying a sustainable livelihood framework to systematically identify prospects and challenges for more sustainable flood-based livelihoods. We interviewed 160 rice farmers and conducted two focus group discussions in two communes in An Giang province. Our results show that appreciation of the benefits of the 3–3–2 cycle has increased while the results of the livelihood capital index calculations show relatively good status of livelihood sustainability of farming households, indicated by the overall 5–capital scores of over 0.4. The study also identifies other constraints to sustainable farm-based livelihoods including unstable rice markets and shortage of labor. A key finding, however, is that unless more supportive policies and enhanced viability of flood-based crops are developed, farmers will not be sufficiently motivated to change their farming practices.

中文翻译：

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越南湄公河三角洲上游洪泛区稻米生计的可持续性：前景与挑战

摘要 在气候变化、上游开发和当地水利基础设施下快速变化的水文条件要求越南湄公河三角洲 (VMD) 农业部门的水资源管理战略发生变革。三十多年来，越南的农业政策一直强调水稻生产的集约化。然而，近年来，越南政府开始更加关注更长期的可持续性考虑。最近的区域计划和高层政策，包括湄公河三角洲计划和第 120 号决议，强调发展高价值、可持续和气候适应型农业和粮食生产。这种转变有其挑战。其中之一与政府授权的防洪策略的变化有关。随着人们对季节性洪水的农业和环境效益（包括土壤肥力保持和病虫害管理）的认识不断提高，政府制定了新法规，要求农民采用所谓的 3-3-2 种植周期，这意味着农民每三年保护一次高堤应该让他们的稻田在第三个稻季被淹。然而，出于与生计安全相关的担忧，一些农民一直不愿将他们的耕作周期从三季稻种植系统转移。我们的研究通过应用可持续生计框架来系统地确定更可持续的基于洪水的生计的前景和挑战，研究了上三角洲稻农的生计可持续性。我们采访了 160 名稻农，并在安江省的两个公社进行了两次焦点小组讨论。我们的研究结果表明，3-3-2 周期的收益升值有所增加，而生计资本指数计算的结果表明农户生计可持续性状况相对较好，总体 5-资本得分超过 0.4。该研究还确定了以农场为基础的可持续生计的其他制约因素，包括不稳定的大米市场和劳动力短缺。然而，一个重要的发现是，除非制定更多的支持性政策并提高洪水作物的生存能力，否则农民将没有足够的动力来改变他们的耕作方式。我们的研究结果表明，3-3-2 周期的收益升值有所增加，而生计资本指数计算的结果表明农户生计可持续性状况相对较好，总体 5-资本得分超过 0.4。该研究还确定了以农场为基础的可持续生计的其他制约因素，包括不稳定的大米市场和劳动力短缺。然而，一个重要的发现是，除非制定更多的支持性政策并提高洪水作物的生存能力，否则农民将没有足够的动力来改变他们的耕作方式。我们的研究结果表明，3-3-2 周期的收益升值有所增加，而生计资本指数计算的结果表明农户生计可持续性状况相对较好，总体 5-资本得分超过 0.4。该研究还确定了以农场为基础的可持续生计的其他制约因素，包括不稳定的大米市场和劳动力短缺。然而，一个重要的发现是，除非制定更多的支持性政策并提高洪水作物的生存能力，否则农民将没有足够的动力来改变他们的耕作方式。该研究还确定了以农场为基础的可持续生计的其他制约因素，包括不稳定的大米市场和劳动力短缺。然而，一个重要的发现是，除非制定更多的支持性政策并提高洪水作物的生存能力，否则农民将没有足够的动力来改变他们的耕作方式。该研究还确定了以农场为基础的可持续生计的其他制约因素，包括不稳定的大米市场和劳动力短缺。然而，一个重要的发现是，除非制定更多的支持性政策并提高洪水作物的生存能力，否则农民将没有足够的动力来改变他们的耕作方式。