We examine deforestation processes in Apuí, a deforestation hotspot in Brazil’s state of Amazonas and present processes of land-use change on this Amazonian development frontier. Settlement projects attract agents whose clearing reflects land accumulation and the economic importance of deforestation. We used a mixed-method approach in the Rio Juma Settlement to examine colonization and deforestation trajectories for 35 years at three scales of analysis: the entire landscape, cohorts of settlement lots divided by occupation periods, and lots grouped by landholding size per household. All sizes of landholdings are deforesting much more than before, and current political and economic forces favoring the agribusiness sector foreshadow increasing rates of forest clearing for pasture establishment in Apuí. The area cleared per year over the 2013–2018 period in Apuí grew by a percentage more than twice the corresponding percentage for the Brazilian Amazon as a whole. With the national congress and presidential administration signaling impunity for illegal deforestation, wealthy actors, and groups are investing resources in land grabbing and land accumulation, with land speculation being a crucial deforestation factor. This paper is unique in providing causal explanations at the decision-maker’s level on how deforestation trajectories are linked to economic and political events (period effects) at the larger scales, adding to the literature by showing that such effects were more important than aging and cohort effects as explanations for deforestation trajectories. Additional research is needed to deepen our understanding of relations between land speculation, illegal possession of public lands, and the expansion of agricultural frontiers in Amazonia.

中文翻译：

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巴西亚马逊发展前沿的森林砍伐轨迹：35 年的定居殖民化、政策和经济转变以及土地积累

我们研究了巴西亚马孙州的森林砍伐热点地区阿普伊的森林砍伐过程，并介绍了这个亚马逊发展前沿的土地利用变化过程。定居项目吸引了代理，他们的清理反映了土地积累和森林砍伐的经济重要性。我们在 Rio Juma 定居点中使用混合方法在三个分析尺度上检查了 35 年的殖民化和森林砍伐轨迹：整个景观、按占领时期划分的定居地块群，以及按每户土地持有规模分组的地块。各种规模的土地砍伐比以前更多，当前有利于农业综合企业部门的政治和经济力量预示着阿普伊牧场建设的森林砍伐率将增加。2013 年至 2018 年期间，阿普伊每年清除的面积增长百分比是巴西亚马逊整体相应百分比的两倍多。随着全国代表大会和总统行政当局表示对非法砍伐森林有罪不罚，富有的行为者和团体正在将资源投入到土地掠夺和土地积累中，土地投机是一个关键的森林砍伐因素。这篇论文的独特之处在于，在决策者层面上，就森林砍伐轨迹如何与更大规模的经济和政治事件（时期效应）相关联提供了因果解释，并通过表明这种影响比老龄化和队列更重要来补充文献。效应作为对森林砍伐轨迹的解释。