ABSTRACT The impact of climate change on runoff characteristics is investigated for the Upper Tisza basin, in eastern Central Europe. For a reliable estimation of uncertainty, an appropriate stochastic weather generator is embedded into a Monte Carlo cycle capable of generating any large number of independent, equally probable, 100-year-long daily sequences of synthetic data with which a hydrological model is driven in order to obtain the hydrological responses to the meteorological data sequences. According to our results, a decrease of daily average runoff is likely to occur in the future in the Upper Tisza basin, especially in July and August. The occurrence of water levels below the critical low level is estimated to increase between July and October. Level-3 flood warnings are projected to be less frequent in the future; however, they will tend to be more severe than in the historical period.

中文翻译：

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作为对中欧/东欧流域区域气候变化响应的径流特征预测

摘要 气候变化对中欧东部上蒂萨盆地的径流特征的影响进行了调查。为了可靠地估计不确定性，将适当的随机天气发生器嵌入到蒙特卡罗循环中，该循环能够生成任意大量独立的、同样可能的、100 年之久的每日合成数据序列，利用这些序列驱动水文模型获得对气象数据序列的水文响应。根据我们的研究结果，未来上蒂萨盆地的日平均径流可能会减少，特别是在 7 月和 8 月。水位低于临界低水位的情况估计会在 7 月和 10 月之间增加。预计未来 3 级洪水警报的频率将降低；然而，