Abstract

In this study, hydrologic regimes of the Palas basin have been investigated with land use/land cover (LULC) change. To investigate the relationship between precipitation and surface runoff, a SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was developed and runoff response was analysed under different LULC conditions. Firstly, Post classification change detection technique was used to prepare time series LULC maps of the years 1987, 2000 and 2011. The overall classification accuracy of 86% and Kappa Coefficient (K) of 0.82 were achieved. Then model was manually calibrated using monthly historical streamflow records. The calibration was successful with coefficient of determination (R ²) value of 0.61 and the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency value of 0.55. Validation of the calibrated model using independent dataset shows even better model performance with Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency value of 0.62 and R ² value of 0.85. The results of this research study are as follows. Agriculture area in Palas Basin considerably expanded (47%) in the last 24 years. Consequently, the area of bare soil declined (36%) markedly during the period 1987–2011. Simulations of runoff for the 2000–2011 period with the SWAT model showed that, under the LULC conditions of 1987, surface runoff would be 40% lower compared to runoff under the LULC conditions of 2011. For the development of sustainable water resource strategies, it is essential to establish interaction between land use changes and local hydrology. Although more observed data is needed for model accuracy, SWAT can provide useful data for water sources planners and policy makers.

中文翻译：

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在一个数据稀缺的盆地中评估地表径流对土地利用变化的响应：以土耳其帕拉斯盆地为例

摘要

在这项研究中，对帕拉斯盆地的水文状况进行了土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）变化的调查。为了研究降水与地表径流之间的关系，建立了SWAT（土壤和水评估工具）模型，并分析了不同LULC条件下的径流响应。首先，利用后分类变化检测技术绘制了1987、2000和2011年的时间序列LULC图。总体分类精度为86％，Kappa系数（K）为0.82。然后使用每月历史流量记录手动校准模型。通过测定系数（R  ²）值0.61，纳什和萨特克利夫效率值0.55。使用独立数据集对校准模型进行的验证显示，在Nash和Sutcliffe效率值为0.62和R  ^{2的情况下，}模型的性能更好。值为0.85。这项研究的结果如下。在过去的24年中，帕拉斯盆地的农业面积大幅扩大（47％）。因此，在1987年至2011年期间，裸土面积显着下降（36％）。使用SWAT模型对2000-2011年期间的径流进行的模拟表明，在1987年的LULC条件下，地表径流比2011年的LULC条件下的径流要低40％。为制定可持续的水资源战略，它对于建立土地利用变化与当地水文之间的相互作用至关重要。尽管需要更多的观测数据来提高模型的准确性，但SWAT可以为水源计划者和决策者提供有用的数据。