Abstract

Modelling the performance of interdependent infrastructure systems paves the way for strategic infrastructure disaster risk management. The nature of different systems makes it hard to model every system at the same resolution. Modelling different systems at different resolutions can also reduce the computational time for more efficient infrastructure resilience planning, especially when large-scale infrastructure systems are considered. This paper categorises the infrastructure interdependencies into three levels based on the modelling resolution: system-to-system, system-to-facility, and facility-to-facility. The applicability and limitations for each category are identified. The version II of the Dynamic Integrated Network model (DIN II) is introduced to model the infrastructure recovery with incorporating multi-level interdependencies and the uncertainties in the modelling process, which improve the flexibility of the model and increase the accuracy of the modelling results. The DIN II is applied to simulate the performance of interdependent power, water, cellular, transportation and social systems in Galveston City, TX under Hurricane Ike (2008) with considering multi-level interdependencies. Model comparison results imply that the power restoration time will be underestimated if no interdependencies or only facility-to-facility level interdependencies are considered.

摘要

对相互依赖的基础设施系统的性能进行建模为战略性基础设施灾害风险管理铺平了道路。不同系统的性质使得很难以相同的分辨率对每个系统进行建模。以不同分辨率对不同系统进行建模还可以减少计算时间，以实现更有效的基础设施弹性规划，尤其是在考虑大规模基础设施系统时。本文根据建模分辨率将基础设施的相互依赖性分为三个级别：系统到系统、系统到设施和设施到设施。确定了每个类别的适用性和限制。引入动态综合网络模型（DIN II）的第二版对基础设施恢复进行建模，在建模过程中结合了多层次的相互依赖性和不确定性，提高了模型的灵活性，增加了建模结果的准确性。DIN II 用于模拟飓风艾克 (2008) 下德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿市相互依赖的电力、水、蜂窝、交通和社会系统的性能，并考虑多级相互依赖性。模型比较结果表明，如果不考虑相互依赖性或仅考虑设施到设施级别的相互依赖性，则电力恢复时间将被低估。DIN II 用于模拟飓风艾克 (2008) 下德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿市相互依赖的电力、水、蜂窝、交通和社会系统的性能，并考虑多级相互依赖性。模型比较结果表明，如果不考虑相互依赖性或仅考虑设施到设施级别的相互依赖性，则电力恢复时间将被低估。DIN II 用于模拟飓风艾克 (2008) 下德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿市相互依赖的电力、水、蜂窝、交通和社会系统的性能，并考虑多级相互依赖性。模型比较结果表明，如果不考虑相互依赖性或仅考虑设施到设施级别的相互依赖性，则电力恢复时间将被低估。