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The impact of dropsonde data on a numerical simulation of landfalling Typhoon Mangkhut
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-13 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1947 ChengZhong Zhang 1 , PakWai Chan 2 , NaiGeng Wu 1 , YanYan Huang 1 , KaiKwong Hon 2
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-13 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1947 ChengZhong Zhang 1 , PakWai Chan 2 , NaiGeng Wu 1 , YanYan Huang 1 , KaiKwong Hon 2
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On September 15, 2018, when Typhoon Mangkhut entered the northeastern South China Sea, nine dropsondes were released in the storm's northwest quadrant at 1000 UTC and five more were released in the northeast quadrant at 1200 UTC. The resulting data were used to analyse wind speed profiles that revealed a peak wind speed at 750 hPa in the northwest quadrant and at 900 hPa in the northeast quadrant. Two experiments were then run for 54 hr using the Globe/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model, one assimilating the dropsonde data (DROP) and one without (CTRL), to investigate the impact of these data on typhoon forecasting. After the assimilation of dropsonde data at 1200 UTC, the analysis field showed the typhoon's circulation weakening at lower levels and strengthening at middle levels, and an intensification of the asymmetry of the typhoon's horizontal kinematic structure between its eastern and western parts. In addition, water vapour over the northwestern side increased from lower to middle levels, and the warm‐core structure was further strengthened. The dropsonde data assimilation resulted in improved quantitative precipitation forecasts during landfall: the averaged track error in the DROP was > 10% lower than in the CTRL and the maximum surface wind speeds and minimum sea level pressures were all closer to those observed before landfall. The findings from the study are preliminary and, therefore, more cases over the South China Sea are needed to obtain statistical significance.
更新日期：2020-09-13
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