Environmental variability drives Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) population dynamics through its effects on vital rates (e.g., survival, dispersal, or breeding success) resulted in penguin abundance changes with time delays. The lagged effects of environmental changes on penguin abundance are still not well defined. We divided the Ross Sea region into six areas to investigate the effects of environmental changes on penguin abundance from 1982 to 2013. Time lagged analysis of 1–6 years between penguin abundance and environmental factors were conducted in our study. We found that penguin abundance was significantly correlated with environmental factors at different lag times (p < 0.05). The relationship between penguin abundance and environmental factors might differ among regions. Generalized additive model results showed that sea surface temperature negatively affected penguin abundance in most regions of the Ross Sea. In mid-Victoria Land, the relationship between sea-ice concentration and penguin abundance was quadratic. Penguin abundance peaked when sea-ice concentration was approximately 40%. Optimal ranges of environmental factors for Adelie penguin population might exist. Our study highlighted the lagged response of penguin abundance to environmental factors to further understand the effects of climate changes on the Antarctic biosphere.

中文翻译：

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阿德利企鹅（Pygoscelis adeliae）丰度对南极罗斯海环境变化的滞后反应

环境变异通过其对生命率（例如，存活、扩散或繁殖成功）的影响来驱动阿德利企鹅 (Pygoscelis adeliae) 种群动态，导致企鹅丰度随时间延迟而变化。环境变化对企鹅丰度的滞后影响仍未得到明确界定。我们将罗斯海地区划分为 6 个区域，以研究 1982 年至 2013 年环境变化对企鹅丰度的影响。我们的研究对企鹅丰度与环境因素之间 1-6 年的时间滞后分析进行了分析。我们发现企鹅丰度与不同滞后时间的环境因素显着相关（p < 0.05）。企鹅丰度与环境因素之间的关系可能因地区而异。广义加性模型结果表明，海面温度对罗斯海大部分地区的企鹅丰度产生负面影响。在维多利亚州中部，海冰浓度与企鹅丰度之间的关系呈二次方关系。当海冰浓度约为 40% 时，企鹅丰度达到峰值。可能存在阿德利企鹅种群的最佳环境因素范围。我们的研究强调了企鹅丰度对环境因素的滞后反应，以进一步了解气候变化对南极生物圈的影响。可能存在阿德利企鹅种群的最佳环境因素范围。我们的研究强调了企鹅丰度对环境因素的滞后反应，以进一步了解气候变化对南极生物圈的影响。可能存在阿德利企鹅种群的最佳环境因素范围。我们的研究强调了企鹅丰度对环境因素的滞后反应，以进一步了解气候变化对南极生物圈的影响。