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Targeted model evaluations for climate services: A case study on heat waves in Bangladesh
Climate Risk Management ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100213
Hannah Nissan , Ángel G. Muñoz , Simon J. Mason

Though not a sufficient condition, the ability to reproduce key elements of climate variability over the historical record should be a minimum requirement for placing any confidence in a model’s climate forecasts or projections of climate change. When projections are used to guide practical adaptation, model evaluations should focus on the weather and climate events of interest to decision-makers, their physical drivers in the climate system and their variability on decision-relevant timescales. This paper argues for a greater emphasis on such targeted model evaluations to enable useful climate services. We illustrate this approach through a case study on heat waves in Bangladesh, but draw wider conclusions that are applicable to climate services development more broadly.

The simulation of heat waves in Bangladesh is evaluated in several climate models, focusing on timescales relevant to the long-term viability of a heat action plan: the average, interannual variability and seasonality of temperature and heat-wave frequency. Where the physical drivers of variability are broadly captured, a considered interpretation of the models could provide insights into future heat-wave behaviour. However, substantial biases are found in the statistics and in some physical drivers of heat, raising questions about the suitability of some of the models for determining certain aspects of future risk. Specifically, simple bias corrections cannot be used to make inferences about possible future changes in various weather statistics such as timing of heat waves during the year. Results emphasize the potential pitfalls of performing only perfunctory climatological evaluations and highlight areas for model improvement in the simulation of South Asian climate variability.



中文翻译:

针对气候服务的目标模型评估:孟加拉国热浪的案例研究

尽管还不够充分,但能够对历史记录重现气候变化关键要素的能力应该是对模型的气候预测或气候变化预测充满信心的最低要求。当使用预测来指导实际适应时,模型评估应着重于决策者,气候系统中的物理驱动因素以及与决策相关的时标的可变性所感兴趣的天气和气候事件。本文主张更加强调这种有针对性的模型评估,以提供有用的气候服务。我们通过对孟加拉国的热浪进行案例研究来说明这种方法,但是得出了更广泛的结论,这些结论更广泛地适用于气候服务的发展。

在几个气候模型中对孟加拉国的热浪模拟进行了评估,重点是与热行动计划的长期可行性相关的时间尺度:温度和热浪频率的平均值,年际变化和季节性。在广泛掌握变化的物理驱动因素的情况下,对模型进行周密的解释可以提供有关未来热浪行为的见解。但是,在统计数据和一些物理的热量驱动因素中发现了很大的偏差,这引发了有关某些模型确定未来风险某些方面的适用性的疑问。具体而言,不能使用简单的偏差校正来推断各种天气统计信息中可能的未来变化,例如一年中的热浪时间。

更新日期:2020-02-08
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