The current research effort bridges the gap between traditional crash risk and real-time crash risk models by developing a joint model that accommodates for both dimensions in developing crash risk analysis models. Specifically, we develop a joint reactive and proactive crash modeling framework by coupling the monthly crash risk and real-time crash risk in a unified econometric framework for a microscopic analysis unit. In the joint modeling approach, we propose and estimate an alternative to the case-control binary logit based real-time crash risk analysis by proposing a multinomial logit based approach where time periods serve as alternatives and the chosen alternative is the time period in which crash occurs. The joint model also allows us to accommodate for the common unobserved factors that increase the likelihood of a crash in microscopic unit to affect the real-time crash risk propensity. We demonstrate the application of the proposed approach by using data on roadway segments from three expressways in Central Florida (State Roads 408, 417, and 528) for 29 months. The monthly crash risk component is examined by using binary logit model employing different static roadway attributes (roadway geometry and operational attributes). The real-time crash risk component is examined by using a multinomial logit model employing different real-time traffic attributes (volume, speed, lane occupancy and environmental conditions). The outcome of the proposed approach allows us to predict both the monthly and real-time crash risk components simultaneously in a single econometric framework.

当前的研究工作是通过开发一种联合模型来弥合传统碰撞风险模型与实时碰撞风险模型之间的鸿沟，该模型在开发碰撞风险分析模型时可同时考虑这两个方面。具体来说，我们通过在统一的计量经济学框架中为微观分析单元耦合每月的碰撞风险和实时的碰撞风险，从而开发了一个联合的反应式和主动式碰撞建模框架。在联合建模方法中，我们通过提出一种基于多项logit的方法，其中时间段为替代方案，选择的替代方案为崩溃的时间段，提出并估算了基于案例控制二进制logit的实时碰撞风险分析方案。发生。联合模型还使我们能够适应常见的未观察到的因素，这些因素会增加微观单元发生碰撞的可能性，从而影响实时碰撞风险的倾向。我们通过使用佛罗里达州中部三个高速公路（408号，417号和528号州际公路）29个月的路段数据来论证该方法的应用。通过使用采用不同静态巷道属性（巷道几何形状和运营属性）的二进制logit模型来检查每月的碰撞风险成分。通过使用采用不同实时交通属性（交通量，速度，车道占用率和环境条件）的多项式logit模型来检查实时崩溃风险组件。