Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, projected future changes in selected extreme daily temperature and precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models are calculated and compared. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their projections of simulated extreme daily temperature and precipitation at specified global warming targets.

使用非平稳的广义极值统计方法，对来自CMIP5和CMIP6气候模型的选定极端日温度和降水指数及其20年回报值的预计未来变化进行了计算和比较。预测是根据指定的全球变暖目标温度而不是在特定时间和特定排放情景下制定的。由于模型气候敏感性从预估值到全球变暖目标时间的差异，框架的变化将预估不确定性转移。在其标准分辨率下，两代模型之间的模拟极端日温度和指定的全球变暖目标的降水量的预测之间没有有意义的差异。