Abstract The detailed knowledge of temperature variation patterns in marine ecosystems is important to understand marine communities' dynamics. The present study modeled the historical (1980–2016) daily bottom temperatures on a shallow marine ecosystem of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (El Rincon), which is a reproductive ground for several commercially important fish. A detailed description of bottom temperature variation patterns was performed mainly focusing on those changes influencing fish populations. The model used in the present study is a modification from previous models applied to lakes and tidal inlets, and predicts daily water temperatures from air temperatures and radiation, considering in turn the change of thermal inertia with depth. Bottom temperature data for model calibration, and also salinity, were recorded on 666 oceanographic stations between July 1993 and December 2012. More than 95% of daily bottom temperature variation was explained by the fitted model, and predictability decreased from 98 to 82% in relation to the increase in thermal inertia with depth. High model deviations (>1.5 °C) were associated with a particular salinity range (33.6–33.9) and evidenced eventual occurrence of cold water advections more evident during the warm season. In response to the changes in thermal inertia with depth, the seasonal occurrence of two opposite horizontal thermal gradients was evident each year. These gradients involved a shoreward warming during the warm season, which promotes fish reproductive aggregations, and a shoreward cooling (warming toward deeper zones) during the cold season, which is related with adult fish dispersion or even migration. Up to more than one month of difference in the onset-end pattern of these thermal gradients was observed depending on the year. Long-term linear variation trends in temperature changed seasonally, with higher cooling rates during spring months, which was particularly evident during October. Also, irregular 3 to 7 year thermal oscillations appeared to occur, indicating the influence of one or more climate variability phenomena. These results depict the general dynamics of bottom temperature patterns in a shallow temperate marine ecosystem, with particular emphasis on their implications for understanding different aspects of fish populations. Particularly, the model and specific data provided in this study will help to further advance our knowledge of this marine ecosystem, in which fishes play an important economical role.

中文翻译：

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模拟西南大西洋沿岸海洋生态系统 (El Rincón) 的底部温度变化模式，特别强调影响鱼类种群的热变化

摘要 海洋生态系统温度变化模式的详细知识对于了解海洋群落动态非常重要。本研究模拟了西南大西洋 (El Rincon) 浅海海洋生态系统的历史（1980-2016 年）每日海底温度，该生态系统是几种重要商业鱼类的繁殖地。对底部温度变化模式的详细描述主要集中在影响鱼类种群的那些变化上。本研究中使用的模型是对先前应用于湖泊和潮汐入口的模型的修改，并根据气温和辐射预测每日水温，进而考虑热惯性随深度的变化。模型校准的底部温度数据，以及盐度，1993 年 7 月至 2012 年 12 月期间在 666 个海洋站记录了 95% 以上的每日底部温度变化由拟合模型解释，并且可预测性从 98% 下降到 82%，与深度热惯性增加有关。高模型偏差 (>1.5 °C) 与特定的盐度范围 (33.6–33.9) 相关，并证明最终在温暖季节会更明显地出现冷水平流。为响应热惯性随深度的变化，每年都会明显出现两个相反的水平热梯度。这些梯度涉及在暖季期间向海岸变暖，这促进了鱼类的繁殖聚集，以及在寒冷季节期间向海岸变冷（向更深的区域变暖），这与成鱼分散甚至洄游有关。根据年份的不同，观察到这些热梯度的开始和结束模式的差异长达一个月以上。温度的长期线性变化趋势随季节变化，春季月份的降温速率较高，这在 10 月份尤为明显。此外，似乎发生了不规则的 3 至 7 年热振荡，表明一种或多种气候变率现象的影响。这些结果描绘了浅温带海洋生态系统中底部温度模式的一般动态，特别强调了它们对理解鱼类种群不同方面的影响。特别是，本研究中提供的模型和具体数据将有助于进一步提高我们对该海洋生态系统的了解，