New Zealand's public insurer for natural hazards, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC's weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future greenhouse gases concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts that vary over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages—the climate change signal—ranges between an increase of 7%–8% in liabilities for the period 2020 to 2040, and between 9% and 25% higher for the period 2080 to 2100. We also provide detail caveats as towhy these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer's liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weatherrelated

新西兰的自然灾害公共保险公司-地震委员会（EQC）为某些与天气相关的破坏提供居民保险。气候变化以及与极端天气有关的事件的强度和频率的预期增加可能会转化为更高的损失，从而给EQC带来额外的财务责任。我们预测与未来气候变化有关的极端降雨事件对未来保险的损害。我们首先根据2000年至2017年所有索赔的完整数据集，估算极端降水事件与EQC与天气有关的保险索赔之间的经验关系。然后，我们使用这种估算关系，结合基于来自六个不同动态缩减规模的区域气候模型的未来温室气体浓度情景的气候预测，来预测直到2100年的不同时间范围内，未来极端降水事件对EQC负债的影响。我们的结果表明，预计的不利影响会有所不同随着时间和空间的变化。预计损害与过去损害之间的变化百分比（气候变化信号）介于2020年至2040年期间负债增加7％至8％之间，以及2080至2100年期间负债增加9％至25％之间。请提供详细的警告，以防可能误解这些数量。预计公共保险公司债务的增加也可以用于通知私人保险公司，监管机构，