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Critical connectivity thresholds and the role of temperature in parasite metapopulations
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109258
Marjolein E.M. Toorians , Thomas P. Adams

Abstract Managing the spread of parasite populations is a ubiquitous challenge for managers of natural and farmed systems. A specific current example are “sea lice”, parasitic marine organisms that live on both wild and farmed Salmon sp., posing a persistent challenge to aquaculture operations in high latitude countries. Lice reproduce with pelagic larvae that spread in the water column, meaning that fish farm sites are connected to one another as a result of their relative location and the response of the organism to the environment. Much work has investigated population connectivity for specific systems, using computational models that link the physical and biological processes affecting larval transport. However, although probability and frequency of dispersal events may be calculated, the specific implications for outbreaks on sites is not entirely clear. We therefore used population models to describe the stage-structured dynamics of connected sea lice population networks, with the goal of establishing the critical connection strength (probability of successful dispersal) for occurrence of an outbreak. Our initial investigation deals with the case of “self-infection” of a single isolated population. Vital rates of life-cycle stages respond to temperature, and as a consequence so does critical connectivity. A dispersal success probability of around 0.01 is required for sea lice population development at the optimal temperature, although this is dependent on parameterisation. The analysis is extended to networks of sites interacting via dispersal, and we show how fallow sites can lead to substantial reductions in population growth rates. Our results provide an important, and to date, missing component in assessment of the environmental impact of marine aquaculture sites. They provide a basis upon which site operators and regional planners can appraise specific developments in the context of their surroundings, and may provide a means for future development of adaptive management strategies.

中文翻译:

临界连接阈值和温度在寄生虫种群中的作用

摘要 管理寄生虫种群的传播是自然和养殖系统管理者普遍面临的挑战。当前的一个具体例子是“海虱”,一种生活在野生和养殖鲑鱼身上的寄生海洋生物,对高纬度国家的水产养殖业务构成持续挑战。虱子与散布在水体中的远洋幼虫一起繁殖,这意味着养鱼场因它们的相对位置和生物体对环境的反应而相互连接。许多工作使用连接影响幼虫运输的物理和生物过程的计算模型研究了特定系统的种群连通性。然而,虽然可以计算扩散事件的概率和频率,现场爆发的具体影响尚不完全清楚。因此,我们使用种群模型来描述连接海虱种群网络的阶段结构动态,目的是建立爆发发生的关键连接强度(成功扩散的概率)。我们的初步调查涉及单个孤立人群的“自我感染”案例。生命周期阶段的重要速率对温度做出响应,因此关键连接也会响应。在最佳温度下海虱种群发展需要大约 0.01 的扩散成功概率,尽管这取决于参数化。该分析扩展到通过分散进行交互的站点网络,我们展示了休耕地如何导致人口增长率大幅下降。我们的结果为评估海水养殖场所的环境影响提供了一个重要的、迄今为止缺失的组成部分。它们提供了场地运营商和区域规划者可以根据其周围环境评估特定发展的基础,并可能为未来适应性管理策略的发展提供一种手段。
更新日期:2020-11-01
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