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Left-censored dementia incidences in estimating cohort effects.
Lifetime Data Analysis ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-12 , DOI: 10.1007/s10985-020-09505-1
Rafael Weißbach 1 , Yongdai Kim 2 , Achim Dörre 1 , Anne Fink 3 , Gabriele Doblhammer 3, 4
Affiliation  

We estimate the dementia incidence hazard in Germany for the birth cohorts 1900 until 1954 from a simple sample of Germany’s largest health insurance company. Followed from 2004 to 2012, 36,000 uncensored dementia incidences are observed and further 200,000 right-censored insurants included. From a multiplicative hazard model we find a positive and linear trend in the dementia hazard over the cohorts. The main focus of the study is on 11,000 left-censored persons who have already suffered from the disease in 2004. After including the left-censored observations, the slope of the trend declines markedly due to Simpson’s paradox, left-censored persons are imbalanced between the cohorts. When including left-censoring, the dementia hazard increases differently for different ages, we consider omitted covariates to be the reason. For the standard errors from large sample theory, left-censoring requires an adjustment to the conditional information matrix equality.



中文翻译:

估计队列效应中的左删失痴呆发生率。

我们从德国最大的健康保险公司的一个简单样本中估计了 1900 年至 1954 年德国出生队列的痴呆症发病风险。随后从 2004 年到 2012 年,观察到 36,000 例未经审查的痴呆症发病率,并进一步包括了 200,000 名经过右删失的保险人。从乘法风险模型中,我们发现队列中痴呆风险呈正线性趋势。该研究的主要焦点是 11,000 名在 2004 年已经患有该疾病的左删失者。在包括左删失观察后,由于辛普森悖论,趋势的斜率显着下降,左删失者在队列。当包括左删失时,不同年龄的痴呆风险增加不同,我们认为遗漏协变量是原因。

更新日期:2020-09-12
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