Rice paddies production in Malaysia, as in other parts of the world, is extremely vulnerable to weather changes and extreme conditions such as drought and flooding. Such situations forced Malaysia to maintain a protectionist regime with respect to its rice industry to better ensure food security for the country. In this study, a crop simulation model (DSSAT) and system dynamics approach were used to assess the impact of climate change on future rice production, self-sufficiency level of rice, and farmers’ gross income in Malaysia. Results from the DSSAT model show that during the main and off growing seasons, increase in temperature and changes rainfall pattern can be expected to reduce the rice yield by 12 and 31.3%, respectively, until the year 2030. Based on the system dynamics’ results, the reduction in rice yield was expected to reduce farmers’ gross income and the rice self-sufficiency level of the country. The study suggested two different policy scenarios to overcome these adverse effects. The overall policy implication is that the Malaysian rice industry cannot be sustained if government takes no action to change its current policies.

像世界其他地区一样，马来西亚的稻田生产极易受到天气变化和干旱和洪水等极端条件的影响。这种情况迫使马来西亚对其大米业维持贸易保护主义，以更好地确保该国的粮食安全。在这项研究中，使用了作物模拟模型（DSSAT）和系统动力学方法来评估气候变化对未来水稻生产，水稻自给水平和马来西亚农民总收入的影响。DSSAT模型的结果表明，到2030年，在主要和非生长季节期间，温度升高和降雨方式变化可能分别使水稻减产12％和31.3％。基于系统动力学的结果，预计稻米减产将减少农民的总收入和该国稻米的自给水平。该研究提出了两种不同的政策方案来克服这些不利影响。总体政策含义是，如果政府不采取任何行动来改变其现行政策，马来西亚大米产业将无法持续。