To obtain a consistent view of sustainable future development, scenarios based on global balances have been derived. The world population may grow significantly faster than generally expected by many studies with up to 11.6 billion people in 2050. The climate goal of 1.5 °C can realistically not be reached any more and it is shown why it has been so difficult to realize that strong action would have been required years ago. Without change in behavior, a strong competition for land area will develop, mainly driven by human fertility and a large fraction of animal‐based food. While CO₂‐based economy does not compete with food production for agricultural land area, its economic feasibility still needs to be demonstrated. In a bio‐based economy, third‐generation biomass alone will not be able to supply enough feedstock to fulfill all demands. Thus, competition with food production for land area will be unavoidable. Besides economic and ecological aspects, also ethics need to be considered. A holistic view is essential for deriving effective policies and ethical guidelines, but it also needs to influence personal decisions.

中文翻译：

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可持续的生物或二氧化碳经济：机会，风险和系统角度

为了获得对可持续未来发展的一致看法，已经得出了基于全球平衡的情景。世界人口的增长速度可能大大快于许多研究的普遍预期，到2050年将达到116亿人。实际上，再也无法实现1.5°C的气候目标，这说明了为什么如此难以意识到几年前就需要采取行动。如果不改变行为，将主要在人类的肥力和大部分动物性食品的驱使下，争夺土地面积。当CO ₂基于基础的经济不能与粮食生产竞争农业用地，仍然需要证明其经济可行性。在以生物为基础的经济中，仅第三代生物质将无法提供足够的原料来满足所有需求。因此，在土地上与粮食生产竞争将是不可避免的。除了经济和生态方面，还需要考虑道德。整体观点对于制定有效的政策和道德准则至关重要，但也需要影响个人决策。