Water plays a key role in the functioning of wetlands and a shortage or contamination of it leads to changes in habitat conditions and degradation of ecosystems. This article scrutinizes the impact of climate change on the hydrological characteristics of floods (maximum flow, duration, volume) in the River Biebrza wetlands (North-East Poland). We analysed the trends in duration and volume of flood and maximum discharges in the historical period 1970–2000 and predicted these for the future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100, respectively. Next we assessed the impact on the wetland ecosystems. The basis of our assessments consists of statistical analyses of hydrographs and calculations by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model and considering nine bias-corrected climate models. The results indicate that both volume and duration of winter floods will keep increasing continuously under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The reduction in peak annual floods is expected to decline slightly in both scenarios. On the other hand, the analysis of trends in mean and standard deviation revealed negligible tendencies in the datasets for summer and winter hydrological seasons within the three time frames analysed (1970–2000; 2020–2050; 2070–2100). We foresee several future implications for the floodplain ecosystems. Shifts in transversal ecosystem zonation parallel to the river will likely take place with more highly productive flood tolerant vegetation types. Nutrient availability and algal blooms during spring inundations will likely increase. Slowdown of organic matter turnover later in summer will lead to a higher peat accumulation rate. Logistical problems with summer mowing and removal of bushes in winter may enhance shrub encroachment.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对下别布扎河（波兰）水流条件和湿地生态系统的影响

水在湿地的功能中起着关键作用，水的短缺或污染会导致栖息地条件的变化和生态系统的退化。本文详细研究了气候变化对比布扎河湿地（波兰东北部）洪水水文特征（最大流量、持续时间、水量）的影响。我们分析了 1970 年至 2000 年历史时期洪水的持续时间和流量以及最大流量的趋势，并分别预测了未来 2020 年至 2050 年和 2070 年至 2100 年的趋势。接下来，我们评估了对湿地生态系统的影响。我们评估的基础包括水文过程线的统计分析和土壤和水评估工具水文模型的计算，并考虑了九个偏差校正气候模型。结果表明，在代表性浓度路径 4.5 和 8.5 下，冬季洪水的数量和持续时间将持续增加。在这两种情况下，预计年度洪水高峰的减少量将略有下降。另一方面，对平均值和标准差趋势的分析表明，在所分析的三个时间范围内（1970-2000 年；2020-2050 年；2070-2100 年），夏季和冬季水文季节数据集中的趋势可以忽略不计。我们预见了对洪泛区生态系统的若干未来影响。与河流平行的横向生态系统分区的变化可能会随着生产力更高的耐洪植被类型而发生。春季洪水期间的养分供应和藻华可能会增加。夏季晚些时候有机质周转放缓将导致更高的泥炭积累率。夏季割草和冬季清除灌木的后勤问题可能会加剧灌木侵占。