Abstract Commercial aircraft operating today are faced with an air traffic management (ATM) system operating with methods that have been developed for a paper- and voice-based system. Important information can be both different and unavailable to the various automation systems supporting decision makers. The consequence of such an environment is that automation systems suffer from inconsistency and inaccuracy. Faced with such a basis for decision making, the ATM environment is highly tactical by necessity. Aircraft operators may plan to optimize their operations in the face of uncertain or unknown information, but these plans are superseded as the tactical situation evolves. In response to these limitations, ATM research and modernization programs are underway across multiple regions of the world. While differences exist between these programs, these align with a single global vision as articulated by the International Civil Aviation Organization's Global Air Traffic Management Operational Concept. One key aspect is the migration to Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) under which each flight is represented with a trajectory that is shared, managed, and used as a common plan for the flight. Decision-support automation for both the aircraft operator and air navigation service providers can use the same trajectory information for planning and tactical decision making, leveraging System Wide Information Management (SWIM). Achieving TBO requires more accurate trajectory prediction and synchronization across participants. This paper reviews research applicable to trajectory prediction throughout the trajectory prediction process, addresses differences in decision-making structures, and considers trajectory synchronization research applicable to TBO. Where possible, operational realities are identified concluding with future research and validation needs for TBO across the entire process from inputs to a synchronized trajectory.

中文翻译：

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用于空中交通管理应用的飞机轨迹预测和同步

摘要 当今运营的商用飞机面临着空中交通管理 (ATM) 系统，该系统采用为基于纸张和语音的系统开发的方法运行。对于支持决策者的各种自动化系统而言，重要信息可能不同且无法获取。这种环境的后果是自动化系统会出现不一致和不准确的情况。面对这样的决策基础，ATM 环境必然具有高度的战术性。面对不确定或未知的信息，飞机运营商可能会计划优化其运营，但随着战术形势的发展，这些计划将被取代。为应对这些限制，世界多个地区都在开展 ATM 研究和现代化计划。虽然这些程序之间存在差异，这些都符合国际民用航空组织的全球空中交通管理运营概念所阐明的单一全球愿景。一个关键方面是向基于轨迹的操作 (TBO) 的迁移，在这种情况下，每次飞行都用一个轨迹表示，该轨迹被共享、管理并用作飞行的共同计划。飞机运营商和空中导航服务提供商的决策支持自动化可以使用相同的轨迹信息进行规划和战术决策，利用系统范围的信息管理 (SWIM)。实现 TBO 需要更准确的轨迹预测和参与者之间的同步。本文回顾了整个轨迹预测过程中适用于轨迹预测的研究，解决了决策结构的差异，并考虑适用于 TBO 的轨迹同步研究。在可能的情况下，确定运营现实，并在从输入到同步轨迹的整个过程中确定未来对 TBO 的研究和验证需求。