In this study, the Distributed Catchment-Scale Model, DiCaSM, was used to study the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Eden catchment, north east of Scotland. As a first step, the model was successfully calibrated and validated for a 42 years period. The DiCaSM model was then used to study the impact of climate change on the water availability. Data from the UKCP09 Climate change scenarios for the 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods, considering three gas emission scenarios (low, medium and high), were applied. The results indicated that the greatest decrease in streamflow and groundwater recharge was projected to happen under the high emission scenarios towards the end of the century, i.e. between 2070 and 2099. This would mainly be due to the summers becoming drier. Meanwhile, the projected increase in winter precipitation did not contribute much towards groundwater recharge due the projected increases in evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficit.The following drought indices were calculated and were found to be effective in predicting different types of droughts: the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, the modified adjusted RDI, the Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and the Wetness Index, WI. The findings of the study have broader implications in water resources management considering the future changes in climate.

中文翻译：

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在流域尺度上评估气候变化对水文学的潜在影响：建模方法，包括使用干旱指数预测未来干旱事件

在这项研究中，采用DiCaSM分布式流域规模模型来研究气候变化对苏格兰东北部Eden流域水文学的影响。第一步，该模型已成功校准和验证了42年。然后，使用DiCaSM模型来研究气候变化对水供应的影响。考虑了三种气体排放情景（低，中和高），采用了UKCP09 2010-2039、2040-2069和2070-2099时期的气候变化情景数据。结果表明，在本世纪末，即2070年至2099年之间，在高排放情景下，流量和地下水补给量的最大减少预计将发生。这主要是由于夏季变得更干燥。与此同时，SPI，以及标准降水蒸发指数SPEI，侦察干旱指数RDI，修正后的调整后RDI，土壤水分亏缺，SMD和湿度指数WI。考虑到未来的气候变化，研究结果对水资源管理具有更广泛的意义。