We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to 'universality arguments'. Second, we provide a formal model for the scaling behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue experiments.

中文翻译：

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霍金辐射和模拟实验：贝叶斯分析

我们目前对模拟实验的认识论进行贝叶斯分析，特别是针对霍金辐射。首先，我们证明了基于“通用论证”的吸引力，此类实验可以用贝叶斯术语进行验证。其次，我们为模拟系统的多个不同实现提供了用于确认度量的缩放行为的形式化模型，并隔离了通用饱和度特征。最后，我们证明了不同的潜在模拟实现可以提供不同级别的确认。我们的研究结果为正式化已进行的模拟实验的认知价值提供了基础，并为科学家提供了未来模拟实验各自的认知价值的基础。