Abstract In this study, a lifecycle operational reliability assessment framework for water distribution networks (WDNs) is proposed on the basis of the probability density evolution method (PDEM). The occurrence models of daily accidents are fitted using the maintenance data provided by a local water administration sector. For a given accident, two types of accidents (e.g., leaks and bursts) are distinguished in different occurrence probabilities and simulated in various ways. The pipe deterioration process in the lifecycle is reflected by incorporating the time-dependent pipe roughness model. Considering various randomness in the model, PDEM, a newly proposed and developed method for a stochastic system, is used to evaluate the lifecycle operational reliability of WDNs. The framework is demonstrated using an actual WDN, and the nodal reliabilities in the lifecycle are obtained. Comparisons of the operational reliabilities of all nodes calculated via the PDEM and Monte Carlo simulations prove that PDEM is an accurate and highly efficient method.

中文翻译：

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基于概率密度演化方法的给水管网生命周期运行可靠性评估

摘要 在本研究中，基于概率密度演化方法（PDEM），提出了供水管网（WDN）生命周期运行可靠性评估框架。日常事故的发生模型是使用当地水行政部门提供的维修数据拟合的。对于给定的事故，两种类型的事故（例如泄漏和爆裂）以不同的发生概率进行区分，并以不同的方式进行模拟。通过引入随时间变化的管道粗糙度模型来反映管道在生命周期中的劣化过程。考虑到模型中的各种随机性，PDEM 是一种新提出和开发的随机系统方法，用于评估 WDN 的生命周期运行可靠性。该框架使用实际的 WDN 进行演示，并获得生命周期中的节点可靠性。通过 PDEM 和 Monte Carlo 模拟计算的所有节点的运行可靠性的比较证明 PDEM 是一种准确且高效的方法。