The potential health consequences of the Trinity nuclear weapon test of 16 July 1945 at Alamogordo, New Mexico, are challenging to assess. Population data are available for mortality but not for cancer incidence for New Mexico residents for the first 25 y after the test, and the estimates of radiation dose to the nearby population are lower than the cumulative dose received from ubiquitous natural background radiation. Despite the estimates of low population exposures, it is believed by some that cancer rates in counties near the Trinity test site (located in Socorro County) are elevated compared with other locations across the state. Further, there is a concern about adverse pregnancy outcomes and genetic diseases (transgenerational or heritable effects) related to population exposure to fallout radiation. The possibility of an intergenerational effect has long been a concern of exposed populations, e.g., Japanese atomic bomb survivors, survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer, radiation workers, and environmentally exposed groups. In this paper, the likelihood of discernible transgenerational effects is discounted because (1) in all large-scale comprehensive studies of exposed populations, no heritable genetic effects have been demonstrated in children of exposed parents; (2) the distribution of estimated doses from Trinity is much lower than in other studied populations where no transgenerational effects have been observed; and (3) there is no evidence of increased cancer rates among the scientific, military, and professional participants at the Trinity test and at other nuclear weapons tests who received much higher doses than New Mexico residents living downwind of the Trinity site.

中文翻译：

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因暴露于 1945 年三位一体原子弹试验的放射性尘埃而导致不良妊娠结局和遗传病（跨代效应）的可能性。

1945 年 7 月 16 日在新墨西哥州阿拉莫戈多进行的三位一体核武器试验对健康的潜在影响难以评估。新墨西哥州居民在测试后的前 25 年内可获得死亡率的人口数据，但无法获得癌症发病率的人口数据，并且对附近人口的辐射剂量估计值低于普遍存在的自然本底辐射所接收的累积剂量。尽管估计人口暴露率较低，但一些人认为，与全州其他地区相比，三一试验点（位于索科罗县）附近县的癌症发病率较高。此外，人们还担心与人口暴露于沉降辐射有关的不良妊娠结局和遗传疾病（跨代或遗传效应）。代际效应的可能性长期以来一直是暴露人群的担忧，例如日本原子弹幸存者、儿童和青少年癌症幸存者、辐射工作人员和环境暴露群体。在本文中，明显的跨代效应的可能性被低估了，因为（1）在所有针对暴露人群的大规模综合研究中，没有在暴露父母的孩子中证明可遗传的遗传效应；(2) Trinity 的估计剂量分布远低于未观察到跨代效应的其他研究人群；(3)没有证据表明，在三位一体试验和其他核武器试验中，科学、军事和专业参与者所接受的剂量比居住在三一试验场下风的新墨西哥州居民高得多的癌症发病率增加。