We highlight the paradoxical implications of decadal reclassification of U.S. counties (and America’s population) from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status between 1960 and 2017. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we show that the reclassification of U.S. counties has been a significant engine of metropolitan growth and nonmetropolitan decline. Over the study period, 753—or nearly 25% of all nonmetropolitan counties—were redefined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as metropolitan, shifting nearly 70 million residents from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan America by 2017. All the growth since 1970 in the metropolitan share of the U.S. population came from reclassification rather than endogenous growth in existing metropolitan areas. Reclassification of nonmetropolitan counties also had implications for drawing appropriate inferences about rural poverty, population aging, education, and economic growth. The paradox is that these many nonmetropolitan “winners”—those experiencing population and economic growth—have, over successive decades, left behind many nonmetropolitan counties with limited prospects for growth. Our study provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and economic malaise but also highlights the interdependent demographic fates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.

中文翻译：

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大都市重新分类和美国农村的城市化。

我们强调了 1960 年至 2017 年间美国县（和美国人口）从非大都市到大都市区的十年重新分类的矛盾影响。使用美国人口普查局的数据，我们表明美国县的重新分类一直是大都市增长的重要引擎和非大都市的衰落。在研究期间，管理和预算办公室 (OMB) 将 753 个（占所有非大都市区的近 25%）重新定义为大都市区，到 2017 年有近 7000 万居民从非大都市区转移到美国大都市区。 自 1970 年以来的所有增长美国大都市人口的比例来自重新分类，而不是现有大都市地区的内生增长。对非都市县的重新分类也对得出关于农村贫困、人口老龄化、教育和经济增长的适当推论有影响。矛盾的是，这些许多非大都市“赢家”——那些经历了人口和经济增长的人——在接下来的几十年里，把许多增长前景有限的非大都市县甩在了后面。我们的研究提供了关于普遍存在的农村衰退和经济萎靡不振的常见叙述的警示性教训，但也强调了大都市和非大都市县相互依存的人口命运。留下了许多增长前景有限的非大都市县。我们的研究提供了关于普遍存在的农村衰退和经济萎靡不振的常见叙述的警示性教训，但也强调了大都市和非大都市县相互依存的人口命运。留下了许多增长前景有限的非大都市县。我们的研究提供了关于普遍存在的农村衰退和经济萎靡不振的常见叙述的警示性教训，但也强调了大都市和非大都市县相互依存的人口命运。