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Establishing regimes of landslide activity – Analysis of landslide triggers over the previous seven decades (Western Carpathians, Poland)
Catena ( IF 6.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2020.104888
Małgorzata Wistuba , Ireneusz Malik , Elżbieta Gorczyca , Albert Ślęzak

Long-term analyses of landslide patterns and triggering factors, covering several decades of continuous data, including periods of both acceleration and stability, are a key to understanding landslide activity, background, and variability. In this study, we analyse the long-term relationships between landslide activity and the triggering factors, precipitation, and low-magnitude earthquakes for three landslides in the Western Carpathians, Poland. Based on dendrochronological reconstruction covering 68 years (1951–2018), including tree-ring eccentricity and compression wood dating for 107 Norway spruce trees, we determined that there are significant differences in the activity and triggers of the studied slopes. We were able to explain the origin of the differences through the individual features of landslide topography and structure, such as the depth of the shear zones, disintegration of landslide blocks resulting in a plastic, flow-like movement of the material, and location of the landslide blocks in relation to high groundwater levels in the valley floors. Finally, we determined the optimal sequences of triggers leading to heavy landsliding for each slope, therefore establishing the regimes of their activity. We argue that the long-term regularities in landslide response to triggers can be generalised into regimes, as is commonly done with river discharge, groundwater levels, and their hydro-meteorological background. We propose establishing “regimes of landslide activity” that are based on decades of observations and reconstructions. Our study demonstrates that such a long-term approach can be an efficient tool for describing and explaining the variability of landslide activity and hazards over space and time.



中文翻译:

建立滑坡活动机制–分析过去七十年的滑坡触发因素(西喀尔巴阡山脉,波兰)

长期的滑坡模式和触发因素分析,包括几十年的连续数据,包括加速和稳定期,是理解滑坡活动,背景和变化性的关键。在这项研究中,我们分析了波兰西部喀尔巴阡地区三处滑坡的滑坡活动与触发因素,降水和低震级地震之间的长期关系。基于涵盖68年(1951-2018年)的树轮年代学重建,包括107棵挪威云杉树木的年轮偏心率和压缩木材测年,我们确定研究坡度的活动性和触发因素存在显着差异。我们能够通过滑坡地形和结构的各个特征来解释差异的根源,例如剪切带的深度,滑坡块的崩解导致材料发生塑性的,类似于流动的运动,以及滑坡块相对于谷底高地下水位的位置。最后,我们确定了导致每个斜坡严重滑坡的触发器的最佳顺序,因此建立了它们的活动机制。我们认为,滑坡对触发的长期响应规律可以归纳为各种体制,如河流流量,地下水位及其水文气象背景通常如此。我们建议基于数十年的观察和重建来建立“滑坡活动制度”。

更新日期:2020-09-10
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