Glaciers in the Alps and several other regions in the world have experienced strong negative mass balances over the past few decades. Some of them are disappearing, undergoing exceptionally negative mass balances that impact the mean regional value, and require replacement. In this study, we analyse the geomorphometric characteristics of 46 mass-balance glaciers in the Alps and the long-term mass-balance time series for a subset of nine reference glaciers. We identify regime shifts in the mass-balance time series (when non-climatic controls started impacting) and develop a glacier vulnerability index (GVI) as a proxy for their possible future development, based on criteria such as hypsometric index, breaks in slope, thickness distribution and elevation change pattern. We found that the subset of 46 mass-balance glaciers reflects the characteristics of the total glacier sample very well and identified a region-specific variability of the mass balance. As the GVI is strongly related to cumulative glacier mass balances, it can be used as a pre-selector of future mass-balance glaciers. We conclude that measurements on rapidly shrinking glaciers should be continued as long as possible to identify regime shifts in hind-cast and better understand the impacts of climatic variability on such glaciers.

中文翻译：

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阿尔卑斯山质量平衡冰川的不平衡响应和气候变化脆弱性

在过去的几十年里，阿尔卑斯山和世界其他几个地区的冰川经历了强烈的负质量平衡。其中一些正在消失，经历了影响平均区域价值的异常负质量平衡，需要更换。在这项研究中，我们分析了阿尔卑斯山 46 个质量平衡冰川的地貌特征以及 9 个参考冰川子集的长期质量平衡时间序列。我们确定了质量平衡时间序列中的制度变化（当非气候控制开始影响时），并根据高度指数、坡度中断等标准，制定冰川脆弱性指数 (GVI) 作为其未来可能发展的代表，厚度分布和高程变化规律。我们发现 46 个质量平衡冰川的子集很好地反映了整个冰川样本的特征，并确定了质量平衡的区域特定变异性。由于 GVI 与累积冰川质量平衡密切相关，它可以用作未来冰川质量平衡的预选择器。我们得出结论，应尽可能长时间地继续对快速收缩的冰川进行测量，以识别后铸的状态变化，并更好地了解气候变化对此类冰川的影响。