Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides 1 , 2 . Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity 3 ; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge 4 . Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity 5 . We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.

中文翻译：

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弯曲陆地生物多样性曲线需要综合战略

需要加大努力，防止陆地生物多样性及其提供的生态系统服务遭受进一步损失 1, 2 。已经提出了雄心勃勃的目标，例如扭转生物多样性下降的趋势 3 ；然而，仅仅养活不断增长的人口将使这成为一项挑战 4 。在这里，我们使用土地利用和生物多样性模型的集合来评估人类是否能够——以及如何——扭转栖息地转换导致的陆地生物多样性下降，这是对生物多样性的主要威胁 5 。我们表明，当前的努力与更广泛的可持续发展议程一致，但具有前所未有的雄心和协调性，可以为不断增长的人口提供食物，同时扭转由栖息地转变引起的全球陆地生物多样性趋势。如果我们决定增加受保护管理的土地范围，恢复退化土地并推广景观层面的保护规划，那么到 21 世纪中叶，平均而言，跨模型的栖息地转换导致的生物多样性趋势可能会变得积极（置信区间，2042- 2061），但并非所有型号都如此。粮食价格可能会上涨，平均而言，在不同模型中，未来生物多样性损失的近一半（置信区间，34-50%）无法避免。然而，另外解决土地利用变化的驱动因素可以避免与负担得起的粮食供应发生冲突，并减少粮食供应系统对环境的影响。通过进一步的可持续集约化和贸易、减少食物浪费和更多以植物为基础的人类饮食，到 2050 年，几乎所有模型都可以避免未来三分之二以上的生物多样性损失，并且栖息地转换导致的生物多样性趋势将得到逆转。尽管在几个生物多样性丰富的地区限制进一步的损失仍然具有挑战性，并且必须解决其他威胁（例如气候变化）才能真正扭转生物多样性的下降，但我们的结果表明，雄心勃勃的保护工作和粮食系统转型对于有效的2020 年后生物多样性战略。为了促进目前全球陆地生物多样性下降趋势的恢复，需要增加保护管理的土地范围和全球粮食系统从农场到餐桌的可持续性。尽管在几个生物多样性丰富的地区限制进一步的损失仍然具有挑战性，并且必须解决其他威胁（例如气候变化）才能真正扭转生物多样性的下降，但我们的结果表明，雄心勃勃的保护工作和粮食系统转型对于有效的2020 年后生物多样性战略。为了促进目前全球陆地生物多样性下降趋势的恢复，需要增加保护管理的土地范围和全球粮食系统从农场到餐桌的可持续性。尽管在几个生物多样性丰富的地区限制进一步的损失仍然具有挑战性，并且必须解决其他威胁（例如气候变化）才能真正扭转生物多样性的下降，但我们的结果表明，雄心勃勃的保护工作和粮食系统转型对于有效的2020 年后生物多样性战略。为了促进目前全球陆地生物多样性下降趋势的恢复，需要增加保护管理的土地范围和从农场到餐桌的全球粮食系统的可持续性。我们的结果表明，雄心勃勃的保护工作和粮食系统转型是 2020 年后生物多样性战略的核心。为了促进目前全球陆地生物多样性下降趋势的恢复，需要增加保护管理的土地范围和从农场到餐桌的全球粮食系统的可持续性。我们的结果表明，雄心勃勃的保护工作和粮食系统转型是 2020 年后生物多样性战略的核心。为了促进目前全球陆地生物多样性下降趋势的恢复，需要增加保护管理的土地范围和从农场到餐桌的全球粮食系统的可持续性。