ABSTRACT

Globally, continuous urban expansion allied to land use/land cover transformation has reflected in negative impacts on ecosystem services and has made threats in the maintenance of human welfare. The value attached to the environment and its services (natural capital) is extremely difficult to assess quantitatively but becomes increasingly necessary to enable better decision-making. This paper addresses the carbon stocks approach, considering the modelling methodology carried out by the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model. Based on the ‘Paris-Saclay’ project implemented in the area of La Bonde (southwest of Massy, France), a new scenario was proposed for the region in order to assess the impacts, in terms of carbon storage variation, of this coming urbanisation. Three soil occupation assignment methodologies (‘priority order,’ ‘majority rule,’ and the newly proposed method ‘weighted values’) were used in the modelling. The total carbon stored evaluated using the ‘priority order’ criterion differed significantly, in the past and future scenarios, from those applying the ‘majority rule’ criterion (32.90% and 34.71%, respectively) and the ‘weighted values’ criterion (35.53% and 37.83%, respectively). The results demonstrated a better accuracy of the ‘weighted values’ criterion since it is the only one able to consider the complete area, without any approximation, of all land cover classes present in the region. Therefore, this study provides different modelling approach to precisely considering the spatial variability of ecosystem services and natural capital, dealing with the analysis of the urban land cover change impacts on carbon stocks that can be applied to other regions.

摘要

在全球范围内，与土地利用/土地覆盖变化相关的持续的城市扩张已反映在对生态系统服务的负面影响上，并在维护人类福祉方面构成了威胁。附加到环境及其服务（自然资本）上的价值非常难以量化，但为实现更好的决策而变得越来越必要。考虑到InVEST碳储存和封存模型执行的建模方法，本文讨论了碳储存方法。基于在La Bonde（法国马西西南）地区实施的“ Paris-Saclay”项目，为该地区提出了一种新的方案，以评估即将到来的城市化进程对碳储量变化的影响。三种土壤占用分配方法（“优先顺序”，“ 在建模中使用了“多数规则”和新提出的方法“加权值”。在过去和将来的情景中，使用“优先顺序”标准评估的碳存储总量与应用“多数规则”标准（分别为32.90％和34.71％）和“加权值”标准（35.53％）的情况存在显着差异。和37.83％）。结果表明“加权值”标准的准确性更高，因为它是唯一能够考虑该地区所有土地覆盖类别的完整区域而没有任何近似值的标准。因此，本研究提供了不同的建模方法来精确考虑生态系统服务和自然资本的空间变异性，