Temperatures in the terrestrial Arctic today are increasing at the highest rate on earth, and heat flux into the cold sediments may result in extensive thawing. Thawing sediments lose their mechanical strength; therefore, warming has significant geomorphic consequences. We have combined heat flux, rock physics, and seismic modeling to estimate the change in elastic properties related to various published future climate scenarios in the Arctic, and we thus investigate the feasibility of exposing thawing rates from seismic data. The heat-flux model was validated using temperature data continuously recorded at the surface and within a well in Adventdalen, Svalbard. We estimated the evolving temperatures in an upper vertical section of the well using the heat-flux model, and we compared them with actual measured well temperatures. The modeled and measured data were consistent, even though our simplified model ignores heat transport due to fluid flow and the effects of clay. The heat-flux modeling resulted in subsurface isotherms that were input to rock-physics modeling based on two-end-member mixing of fully frozen and unfrozen composites to delineate possible climate effects on the seismic properties of the sediments. The results show that the elastic and seismic properties of (partly) frozen unconsolidated near-surface saline sediments strongly depend on heat flux into the subsurface, and they vary seasonally and between different climate scenarios. Seismic data obtained by full-waveform modeling and real experiments in Adventdalen show that time-lapse analysis of Rayleigh waves may be an efficient tool for monitoring heat flux into the terrestrial Arctic.

中文翻译：

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弹性特性可作为流入冷近地表北极沉积物的热通量的指标

今天，地球北极的温度以地球上最高的速度上升，并且进入冷沉积物中的热通量可能导致大量融化。解冻的沉积物失去了机械强度。因此，变暖具有重大的地貌后果。我们结合了热通量，岩石物理学和地震模型，以估计与北极地区各种已发布的未来气候情景有关的弹性特性的变化，从而研究了从地震数据中揭示融化率的可行性。使用在斯瓦尔巴特群岛Adventdalen的地面和井中连续记录的温度数据验证了热通量模型。我们使用热通量模型估算了井的上部垂直部分的演化温度，并将其与实际测得的井温度进行了比较。尽管我们的简化模型忽略了由于流体流动和粘土作用而产生的热传递，但是建模和测量的数据是一致的。热通量模型产生了地下等温线，这些等温线被输入到岩石物理学模型中，该模型基于完全冻结和未冻结的复合材料的两端混合，以描述气候对沉积物地震特性的可能影响。结果表明，（部分）冻结的未固结的近地表盐类沉积物的弹性和地震特性强烈依赖于进入地下的热通量，并且它们随季节和在不同的气候情景之间变化。通过在Adventdalen中进行全波形建模和实际实验获得的地震数据表明，瑞利波的时移分析可能是监测进入北极的热通量的有效工具。