Abstract. Climate change influences the global and regional distribution of many species. For thermophilic insects, range expansions towards the north and to higher elevations are expected in the course of climatic warming across the Northern Hemisphere. The distribution of the European mantis (Mantis religiosa) has recently expanded from Mediterranean regions in France to Hesse in central Germany. This is interpreted as a response to rising mean temperatures, and further northward expansion is expected to occur with increasing climate warming. In this study, potential changes in the regional distribution across Hesse were modeled for Mantis religiosa using the present distribution and climate across Europe as the baseline. We estimated potential changes in the regional distribution for two time periods until 2080 based on two climate change scenarios. The results showed that the current range of M. religiosa in Hesse is smaller than expected based on its climatic niche, i.e., the distribution is not in equilibrium with the present climate. With climate warming the model predicts an expansion of the potential distribution for the period 2041–2060. For the period 2061–2080, our model predicts, however, a range contraction in spite of continued warming. This unexpected result warrants further investigation in order to elucidate whether the ongoing climate change may have negative consequences for thermophilic species such as M. religiosa.

中文翻译：

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预计气候变化对<i>Mantis religiosa</i>分布的影响表明先扩张后收缩

摘要。气候变化影响许多物种的全球和区域分布。对于嗜热昆虫，在整个北半球的气候变暖过程中，预计范围会向北和更高的海拔扩展。欧洲螳螂（Mantis religiosa）的分布最近从法国的地中海地区扩展到德国中部的黑森州。这被解释为对平均气温上升的反应，随着气候变暖，预计将进一步向北扩张。在这项研究中，使用整个欧洲的当前分布和气候作为基线，为 Mantis religiosa 模拟了黑森州区域分布的潜在变化。我们根据两种气候变化情景估计了到 2080 年的两个时间段内区域分布的潜在变化。结果表明，目前黑森州M. religiosa 的分布范围小于基于其气候生态位的预期，即分布与当前气候不平衡。随着气候变暖，该模型预测 2041-2060 年期间的潜在分布将扩大。然而，在 2061 年至 2080 年期间，我们的模型预测，尽管持续变暖，但范围会缩小。这一意外结果值得进一步调查，以阐明持续的气候变化是否可能对嗜热物种（如 M. religiosa）产生负面影响。这种分布与目前的气候不平衡。随着气候变暖，该模型预测 2041-2060 年期间的潜在分布将扩大。然而，在 2061 年至 2080 年期间，我们的模型预测，尽管持续变暖，但范围会缩小。这一意外结果值得进一步调查，以阐明持续的气候变化是否可能对嗜热物种（如 M. religiosa）产生负面影响。这种分布与目前的气候不平衡。随着气候变暖，该模型预测 2041-2060 年期间的潜在分布将扩大。然而，在 2061 年至 2080 年期间，我们的模型预测，尽管持续变暖，但范围会缩小。这一意外结果值得进一步调查，以阐明持续的气候变化是否可能对嗜热物种（如 M. religiosa）产生负面影响。