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Modelling evacuation decision-making in the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Gatlinburg, TN
International Journal of Wildland Fire ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.1071/wf20038
Erica D. Kuligowski , Emily H. Walpole , Ruggiero Lovreglio , Sarah McCaffrey

As wildfires occurring at the wildland–urban interface (WUI) continue to become more severe, there is an increasing need to understand human behaviour in these situations, and evacuation decision-making in particular. To contribute to this understanding, an online survey (using both mail and online sampling methods) was disseminated to households impacted by the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Tennessee. The survey instrument measured pre-event variables such as awareness of fire risks and previous experience with evacuations as well as the types of warnings and fire cues received during the event, with a focus on factors known to impact evacuation decisions and risk perception. Using linear and logistic regression analyses, it was found that fire cues and receiving warnings from a trusted source influenced risk perceptions leading up to an evacuation decision. In line with the Protective Action Decision Model, risk perception also highly influenced evacuation decisions, along with other variables, i.e. gender and prior preparation actions. Results from this work provide support for findings from previous wildfire evacuation research as well as produce some novel findings, along with several methodological recommendations, which will be further explored.

中文翻译:

田纳西州加特林堡 2016 年烟囱顶部 2 火灾中的疏散决策建模

随着发生在荒地-城市界面 (WUI) 的野火继续变得更加严重,越来越需要了解这些情况下的人类行为,尤其是疏散决策。为了加深理解,一项在线调查(使用邮件和在线抽样方法)向受 2016 年田纳西州烟囱顶部 2 火灾影响的家庭分发。该调查工具测量了事前变量,例如火灾风险意识和疏散经验,以及在活动期间收到的警告和火灾线索的类型,重点关注影响疏散决策和风险感知的已知因素。使用线性和逻辑回归分析,研究发现,火灾线索和从可靠来源收到的警告会影响导致疏散决定的风险认知。与保护行动决策模型一致,风险感知与其他变量(即性别和事先准备行动)一起也高度影响疏散决策。这项工作的结果为先前野火疏散研究的结果提供了支持,并产生了一些新的发现,以及一些将进一步探讨的方法学建议。
更新日期:2020-01-01
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