In mosaic ecosystems, multiple land types coexist as alternative stable states exhibiting distinct spatial patterns. Forest‐grassland mosaics are ecologically valuable, due to their high species richness. However, anthropogenic disturbances threaten these ecosystems. Designating protected areas is one approach to preserving natural mosaics. Such work must account for climate change, yet there are few spatially explicit models of mosaics under climate change that can predict its effects. We construct a spatially explicit simulation model for a natural forest‐grassland mosaic, parameterized for Southern Brazil. Using this model, we investigate how the spatial structure of these systems is altered under climate change and other disturbance regimes. By including local spatial interactions and fire‐mediated forest recruitment, our model reproduces important spatial features of protected real‐world mosaics, including the number of forest patches and overall forest cover. Multiple concurrent changes in environmental conditions have greater impacts on tree cover and spatial structure in simulated mosaics than single changes. This sensitivity reflects the narrow range of conditions under which simulated mosaics persist and emphasizes their vulnerability. Our model predicts that, in protected mosaics, climate change impacts on the fire‐mediated threshold to recruitment will likely result in substantial increases in forest cover under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with potential for mosaic loss over a broad range of initial forest cover levels. Forest cover trajectories are similar until 2150, when cover increases under RCP 8.5 outpace those under RCP 2.6. Mosaics that persist under RCP 8.5 may experience structural alterations at the patch and landscape level. Our simple model predicts several realistic aspects of spatial structure as well as plausible responses to likely regional climate shifts. Hence, further model development could provide a useful tool when building strategies for protecting these ecosystems, by informing site selection for conservation areas that will be favourable to forest‐grassland mosaics under future climates.

中文翻译：

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受保护的森林-草原马赛克中的空间结构：探索气候变化下的未来。

在镶嵌生态系统中，多种土地类型作为替代的稳定状态共存，表现出独特的空间格局。森林草原马赛克具有很高的物种丰富度，具有生态价值。但是，人为干扰威胁了这些生态系统。指定保护区是保存天然马赛克的一种方法。此类工作必须考虑到气候变化，但是在气候变化下很少有可以预测其影响的空间镶嵌模型。我们为巴西南部的天然森林-草地马赛克构建了空间明确的仿真模型。使用该模型，我们研究了在气候变化和其他干扰情况下这些系统的空间结构如何变化。通过纳入局部空间相互作用和火灾介导的森林募集，我们的模型再现了受保护的真实世界马赛克的重要空间特征，包括森林斑块的数量和森林总覆盖率。与单个更改相比，环境条件的多个并发更改对模拟镶嵌图中的树木覆盖和空间结构的影响更大。这种敏感性反映了模拟马赛克持续存在的狭窄条件，并强调了它们的脆弱性。我们的模型预测，在受保护的马赛克中，气候变化对火灾介导的征募门槛的影响可能会导致代表浓度途径（RCP）8.5下森林覆盖率的大幅增加，并可能在广泛的初始森林中造成马赛克损失覆盖水平。直到2150年，森林覆盖率的轨迹都是相似的，此时RCP 8.5下的覆盖率增长超过RCP 2.6下的覆盖率增长。在RCP 8.5下持续存在的马赛克可能会在补丁和景观级别经历结构更改。我们的简单模型预测了空间结构的一些现实方面以及对可能的区域气候变化的合理响应。因此，进一步的模型开发可以为保护这些生态系统的战略提供一个有用的工具，方法是告知保护区选址，这些保护区将有利于未来气候下的森林草地拼接。