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Gaussian models for anthropogenic CO2 emissions consistent with prescribed climate targets
Journal of King Saud University-Science ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jksus.2020.08.023
Nizar Jaoua , Wadii Hajji

Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide global and national climate policy makers with smooth patterns of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that better fit prescribed climate targets, in comparison with existing mitigation models.

Methods: Based on an accessible mathematical analysis, a linearly-increasing relative rate of reduction is considered for the emissions, and therefore, Gaussian modelling appears as a perfect tool for such an improvement.

Results: Among the designed models, a flexible pattern, composed of a half-bell-shaped decline preceded by a parabolic slowdown, is found to be ideal for bringing the emissions to ‘zero’ as soon as possible without direct removal of CO2. It is shown, in particular, that a global mitigation, based on this pattern, consistent with the 1.5 °C target and starting in 2020, will help to achieve a global ‘zero’ emission in 2050, as urged by the United Nations (UN), earlier in the mid 2040s, or later in the mid-late 2050s for more feasibility with an average annual reduction in the range 2.46–3.19 GtCO2 (which includes each of the EU and USA annual records of about 2.8 GtCO2) from a peak projected in the late thirties.

Conclusion: Based on a mathematical approach to CO2 emissions modelling, the study reveals a parametrised collection of feasible and flexible pathways, with the advantage of bringing the emissions smoothly to an earlier or similar ‘zero’ timing, with, unlike UN models, no target overshooting nor need for negative-emission technology.



中文翻译:

与规定的气候目标一致的人为CO 2排放的高斯模型

目标:与现有的缓解模型相比,本文的目的是为全球和国家的气候政策制定者提供更符合规定的气候目标的平稳二氧化碳(CO 2)排放模式。

方法:基于可访问的数学分析,考虑了排放量线性增加的相对减少率,因此,高斯模型似乎是实现这种改进的理想工具。

结果:在设计的模型中,发现由半铃状下降和抛物线减速组成的灵活模式非常适合将排放量尽快降至“零”而无需直接去除CO 2。特别是,根据联合国的敦促,特别表明,基于这种模式的全球缓解与1.5°C的目标相一致,从2020年开始,将有助于在2050年实现全球``零''排放。 ),在2040年代中期或更早的2050年代中后期,以获得更大的可行性,其平均年减排量为2.46–3.19 GtCO 2(包括欧盟和美国每年的约2.8 GtCO 2记录)三十年代末期预计将达到高峰。

结论:基于一种数学方法对CO 2排放进行建模,该研究揭示了可行而灵活的路径的参数化集合,具有将排放平稳地带入更早或更相似的“零”时机的优势,与联合国模型不同,该方法没有目标超调,也不需要负排放技术。

更新日期:2020-09-29
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