ABSTRACT This paper presents an economic assessment of two different policies – both implying an increased demand for forest ecosystem services – and how these could affect the competition for forest raw materials. A forest sector trade model is updated to a new base year (2016), and then employed to analyze the consequences of a more intense use of bioenergy and increased forest conservation in Sweden. These scenarios are assessed individually and in combination. A particularly interesting market impact is that bioenergy promotion and forest conservation tend to have opposite effects on forest industry by-product prices. Moreover, combining the two policies mitigates the forest industry by-product price increase compared to the case where only the bioenergy-promoting policy is implemented. Namely, the energy using sector (heat and power) is less negatively affected in terms of increased feedstock prices if bioenergy demand targets are accompanied by increased forest conservation. This effect is due to increasing pulpwood prices, which reduces pulp, paper and board production, and in turn mitigates the competition for the associated by-products. Overall, the paper illustrates the complexity of the forest raw material market, and the importance of considering demand and supply responses within and between sectors in energy and forest policy decision-making.

中文翻译：

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生物能源与森林保护：瑞典森林原材料市场的部分均衡分析

摘要 本文介绍了对两种不同政策的经济评估——两者都意味着对森林生态系统服务的需求增加——以及这些政策如何影响对森林原材料的竞争。森林部门贸易模型更新为新的基准年（2016 年），然后用于分析瑞典更密集地使用生物能源和加强森林保护的后果。这些情景是单独和组合评估的。一个特别有趣的市场影响是生物能源推广和森林保护往往对林业副产品价格产生相反的影响。此外，与仅实施生物能源促进政策的情况相比，两种政策的结合可以缓解林产业副产品价格的上涨。即，如果生物能源需求目标伴随着森林保护的增加，能源使用部门（热力和电力）在原料价格上涨方面的负面影响较小。这种影响是由于纸浆木材价格上涨导致纸浆、纸张和纸板产量下降，进而减轻对相关副产品的竞争。总体而言，本文说明了森林原材料市场的复杂性，以及在能源和森林政策决策中考虑部门内部和部门之间的需求和供应响应的重要性。从而减轻对相关副产品的竞争。总体而言，本文说明了森林原材料市场的复杂性，以及在能源和森林政策决策中考虑部门内部和部门之间的需求和供应响应的重要性。从而减轻对相关副产品的竞争。总体而言，本文说明了森林原材料市场的复杂性，以及在能源和森林政策决策中考虑部门内部和部门之间的需求和供应响应的重要性。