Abstract Although the accomplishments of the 1528 subjects of the Genetic Studies of Genius are impressive, they do not represent the pinnacle of human achievement. Since the early 1990s, commentators have criticized the study because two future Nobelists—William Shockley and Luis Alvarez—were among the candidates screened for the study; but they were rejected because their IQ scores were too low. Critics see this as a flaw of Terman's methodology and/or intelligence testing. This study simulates the Terman's sampling procedure to estimate the probability that Terman would have selected one or both future Nobelists from a population of 168,000 candidates. Using simulations, we created a model that reflected the reliability of the IQ scores used to select individuals for the Genetic Studies of Genius and the relationship between IQ and Nobelist status. Results showed that it was unlikely for Terman to identify children who would later earn Nobel prizes, mostly because of the low base rate of earning a Nobel and the high minimum IQ needed to be selected for Terman's study. Changes to the methodology that would have been required to select one or both Nobelists were not practical. Therefore, future Nobelists' absence from the Genetic Studies of Genius sample is not a fatal flaw of intelligence testing or Terman's study. Instead, predicting high levels of eminence requires measuring a variety of relevant cognitive and non-cognitive variables. A preprint version of this paper is available at https://psyarxiv.com/g4x6r/ . Simulation code and results and reliability generalization information are available at https://osf.io/3xfe8/ .

中文翻译：

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低基本率和高智商选择门槛阻止了特曼确定未来的诺贝尔奖获得者

摘要 天才遗传学1528个学科的成就虽然令人瞩目，但并不代表人类成就的顶峰。自 1990 年代初以来，评论家一直批评这项研究，因为两位未来的诺贝尔奖获得者——威廉·肖克利 (William Shockley) 和路易斯·阿尔瓦雷斯 (Luis Alvarez) 是该研究筛选的候选人之一。但他们被拒绝了，因为他们的智商太低了。批评者认为这是特曼方法论和/或智力测试的缺陷。这项研究模拟了特曼的抽样程序，以估计特曼从 168,000 名候选人中选出一名或两名未来诺贝尔奖获得者的概率。使用模拟，我们创建了一个模型，该模型反映了用于选择天才遗传研究个体的智商分数的可靠性以及智商与诺贝尔奖获得者地位之间的关系。结果表明，特曼不太可能确定后来获得诺贝尔奖的孩子，主要是因为获得诺贝尔奖的基础率低，而且特曼的研究需要选择高的最低智商。对选择一位或两位诺贝尔奖获得者所需的方法进行更改是不切实际的。因此，未来的诺贝尔奖获得者缺席 Genius 样本的遗传研究并不是智力测试或特曼研究的致命缺陷。相反，预测高水平的卓越需要测量各种相关的认知和非认知变量。本文的预印版可从 https://psyarxiv 获得。com/g4x6r/。仿真代码和结果以及可靠性概括信息可在 https://osf.io/3xfe8/ 获得。