This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

中文翻译：

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当地劳动力市场和持续的人口冲击：来自西德的证据，1939-1970

本文研究了大规模、出乎意料且区域分布极不均匀的人口冲击的持续存在，即二战后 800 万德国人从东欧流入西德。我们使用 1939 年至 1970 年的详细人口普查数据表明，冲击对当地劳动力市场内的人口分布具有持续影响，但对劳动力市场之间的分布仅产生暂时影响。这些结果表明，区位基本面决定了跨而不是在本地劳动力市场内的人口模式，它们可以帮助解释为什么先前关于人口冲击持续性的研究得出了如此不同的结论。