With every passing day, one comes to know that cases of the corona virus disease are increasing. This is an alarming situation in many countries of the globe. So far, the virus has attacked as many as 188 countries of the world and 5 549 131 (27 May 2020) human population is affected with 348 224 deaths. In this regard, public and private health authorities are looking for manpower with modeling skills and possible vaccine. In this research paper, keeping in view the fast transmission dynamics of the virus, we have proposed a new mathematical model of eight mutually distinct compartments with the help of memory‐possessing operator of Caputo type. The fractional order parameter ψ of the model has been optimized so that smallest error can be attained while comparing simulations and the real data set which is considered for the country Pakistan. Using Banach fixed point analysis, it has been shown that the model has a unique solution whereas its basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is approximated to be 6.5894. Disease‐free steady state is shown to be locally asymptotically stable for ${\mathcal{R}}_0<0$, otherwise unstable. Nelder‐Mead optimization algorithm under MATLAB Toolbox with daily real cases of the virus in Pakistan is employed to obtain best fitted values of the parameters for the model's validation. Numerical simulations of the model have come into good agreement with the practical observations wherein social distancing, wearing masks, and staying home have proved to be the most effective measures in order to prevent the virus from further spread.

中文翻译：

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通过确定性模型分析部分冠状病毒大流行

随着时间的流逝，人们逐渐认识到日冕病毒疾病的病例正在增加。在全球许多国家，这是一个令人震惊的情况。迄今为止，该病毒已袭击了全球188个国家，有5 549 131人（2020年5月27日）感染了348 224人。在这方面，公共和私人卫生当局正在寻找具有建模技能和可能的疫苗的人力。在这篇研究论文中，考虑到病毒的快速传播动态，我们借助Caputo型拥有记忆的算子，提出了一个新的数学模型，该模型具有八个相互不同的区室。分数阶参数ψ对模型的最佳化进行了优化，以便在将模拟与针对巴基斯坦国家考虑的真实数据集进行比较时，可以获得最小的误差。使用Banach定点分析，已表明该模型具有唯一的解决方案，而其基本复制数${\mathcal{[R}}_0$大约是6.5894。无病稳态显示为局部渐近稳定${\mathcal{[R}}_0<0$，否则不稳定。使用MATLAB Toolbox下的Nelder-Mead优化算法，对巴基斯坦每天的实际病毒病例进行分析，以获取参数的最佳拟合值，以进行模型验证。该模型的数值模拟与实际观察非常吻合，在实践中，远离社会，戴口罩和待在家里被证明是防止病毒进一步传播的最有效措施。